Historic space return set for this afternoon

AP PHOTO John Glenn, shown here in 1962, is ready to go back into space after more than three decades.

Los Angeles Times

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - And so today it all will come down to this: Once again while the whole world watches, John Glenn will put himself in harm's way for the intoxicating chance to view the planet from the emptiness of space.

For all the talk of space gerontology and science research, for all the media hype and nostalgia for an age of square-jawed heroes, the undeniable fact is that a 77-year-old senator will squeeze into a seat on the shuttle Discovery and ride a potential flying bomb on an exhilarating nine-minute lunge into orbit.

The countdown was proceeding without major problem yesterday and forecasters gave a 100 percent chance of favorable weather for the scheduled 2 p.m. EST launch for the nine-day mission.

The technology has improved since Glenn rode an Atlas rocket aloft in 1962 to become the first American to circle the globe in space. But the inherent risks of space flight - particularly during the fiery ascent phase - are as real as they were nearly four decades ago.

It is a risk that astronauts embrace, Glenn no less than his younger and more experienced counterparts.

"It is serious business here," he said recently. It is a business that Glenn's wife, Annie, and their two grown children, David and Lyn, have had to accept anew.

Annie was not keen on the idea, but came to accept it after visiting the Johnson Space Center in Houston and learning more about his training and meeting some of those who will watch over his fate.

David Glenn, a doctor in Northern California, said that when his father told him of his latest selection as a astronaut, he could not get the horrible image of the Challenger space shuttle explosion in January 1986 out of his mind.

"I must have watched that thing go up and blow up a hundred times," David Glenn said at a NASA-broadcast interview. He said it helped reading up on the shuttle and talking to NASA personnel. "I've sort of gotten beyond seeing that replay in my head," he said.

The launch of Discovery will be the 92nd shuttle mission. Only one, the Challenger, has ended in disaster. NASA was accused of understating the risks, with too little attention to the risk analysis methods used commonly in the nuclear industry and elsewhere. Instead of the 1 in 100,000 risk commonly cited before the accident, the agency revised that to 1 in 78 and NASA officials warned Congress there was a good chance that another shuttle would be lost within a decade.

Today, thanks to improvements in the shuttle's main engine and other measures, the risk of loss of a shuttle during a mission is now estimated to be 1 in 233, still far more likely than the chance of a person being struck by lightning (about one in a million). But the space agency has launched 66 shuttles safely since the Challenger and NASA officials say there has been no slackening in the emphasis on safety.

Shuttle crews do not dwell on the dangers, according to James Wetherbee, director of flight crew operations.

"Astronauts tend to think about risk differently than most folks," Wetherbee said. He said crew members may think about the risks on the night before a launch, but they then put the thoughts aside and focus on the intense activity of a launch. "You don't think about anything but your job," he said.

If astronauts were to die again in a shuttle accident, particularly on a high-profile flight like Glenn's, NASA would face some political risk as well.

"If people were killed, the existence of the agency might be in jeopardy," said Seymour Himmel, a former top NASA official and a member of the agency's advisory panel of outside safety experts.

There was management complacency and inattention to warnings about a faulty booster rocket joint prior to the Challenger disaster. If similar failings were found again, it surely would trigger another round of soul-searching.

More immediately, some space policy analysts have been concerned that the launch crews could be a little rusty, because NASA's last shuttle launch was on June 2. That is the longest stand-down since the post-Challenger investigation grounded shuttles for two-and-a-half years.

Ground crews have performed six mock countdowns and four fueling rehearsals during the down time to keep an edge on their skills.

"They have really focused their attention on making sure that everything that could be done was done," said Joseph Fragola, a specialist on risk analysis. Fragola is a vice president in the New York City office of Science Applications International Corp. He has regular contact with NASA safety officials and said there appears to be a concerted effort not to let the hoopla surrounding the Glenn flight override normal judgments on launch criteria. "If anything, they are being more conservative on this."

Beyond the possibility of a Challenger-like disaster during launch, questions also have been raised about the risks of putting a 77-year-old man - no matter how fit - through the stresses of a spaceflight.

During his training, Glenn was spun in a centrifuge to show that he could handle the 3 Gs, triple the force of gravity, experienced during launch. (He handled nearly 8 Gs during his Mercury launch in 1962.)

The crew members on shuttles have private daily consultations with ground-based flight surgeons during the flight. According to lead flight director Phil Engelauf, if there were a serious medical problem "that would be best served by bringing the crew member home, then we would set about making orderly plans to do that."

NASA has acknowledged that there is a slightly increased risk for an older person flying in space, but Engelauf said the agency "has accepted that increased risk in favor of the science return that we hope to get."

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