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Forbes, Buchanan called `hot' challengers to Sen. Dole

DES MOINES, Iowa -- The ambush Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) suffered in Louisiana on Tuesday night leaves two classic outsiders who have never held elective office as the "hot" challengers to Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) in Monday's Iowa caucuses.

But both Pat Buchanan, who upset Gramm in Louisiana, and Malcolm "Steve" Forbes Jr., whose media blitz has lifted him into second place in the polls, face enough obstacles here that former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander also has renewed hopes of surviving the caucuses and moving on to the next battleground in New Hampshire on Feb. 20.

Both Buchanan and some Alexander strategists suggested the result here would give Dole an unconvincing victory, but leave the rest so closely bunched that everyone would have another chance in New Hampshire.

Gramm's stunning defeat Tuesday in caucuses he engineered to help jump-start his campaign dealt a huge blow to his hopes of finishing second here and threaten to send him to the sidelines early in the nomination process unless he can recover quickly.

His potential collapse would remove the one candidate Dole and his campaign long feared as their most dangerous challenger, but the emergence of Forbes and Buchanan could create unexpected problems for Dole.

Recognizing that threat, Dole fought back yesterday by defending his career in Congress during a speech by telephone to an audience in New Hampshire.

"We get all this talk about ... all these politicians, politicians, politicians," Dole said. "Some people may be right, but I don't think so. I get up every morning. I'm anxious to go to work, and not because of the pay and not because of the power (but) because I think I can make a difference when I come to work. ..."

Gramm's advisers did little to conceal their concern for a strategy that, in the words of Iowa GOP chairman Brian Kennedy, "backfired" Tuesday. The Texas senator barely a year ago was viewed by many as the man most likely to become Dole's principal rival because of his conservative message and his financial and organization resources.

"Definitely we got shot in the leg at the starting line and it makes life more difficult," said Alex Castellanos, Gramm's media adviser.

Most worrisome to Gramm and his camp was Buchanan's success among religious conservatives in Louisiana. According to exit polls by Voter News Service, 53 percent of caucus attendees there called themselves members of the religious conservative movement. Buchanan won 56 percent of those voters to 31 percent for Gramm.

Here in Iowa, religious conservatives play an influential role in the caucuses, and where once Gramm hoped to attract some of those voters away from Buchanan, the opposite now could occur.

Buchanan told a Des Moines press conference yesterday night that "it is time for conservatives -- particularly the right-to-life movement -- to unite behind the one candidate" who he said could win.

Buchanan acknowledged he is now splitting that vote with Dole, Gramm and radio talk-show host Alan Keyes. Buchanan won 58 percent of the caucus attendees who said the GOP should maintain its platform plan calling for a constitutional amendment to ban abortions, an issue that also is important to many Iowa caucus-goers.

Robert Schockemoehl, a Gramm supporter who also is chairman of Iowa Right to Life and finance chairman of the Christian Coalition, said the Louisiana results hurt his candidate here. "We were hoping to pull from the Buchanan camp. ... But now Buchanan is smiling today, happy with what we hoped would happen to us."

But Kennedy said Buchanan may have difficulty translating his victory in Louisiana to a strong showing here. "Buchanan has decided to give New Hampshire a higher priority in his campaign," Kennedy said. "I don't think he's in a position with organization or staff to take advantage of votes that are moving his way."

The problem facing Buchanan in Iowa is condemnation of NAFTA and other free-trade agreements. That posture helped him in Louisiana, where he ran best among lower-income voters, but Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad, a Dole supporter, said yesterday it would hurt Buchanan in Iowa, which is heavily dependent on farm exports.

Buchanan said he would take the challenge head on by advertising his position as opposed to that of Dole and Forbes.

Forbes also may have difficulty converting his rapid rise in the polls into a second-place finish here, in part because the Iowa caucuses generally have given the advantage to candidates with superior organizations. Forbes had made significant strides here, but seems to be receiving the same kind of skeptical scrutiny here that all the other candidates are receiving, not the rapturous reception he has received in New Hampshire.

Dole still enjoys the role of favorite here on Monday because of his 1988 victory and his long ties to the state, although few voters express much enthusiasm for him as the party's nominee.

But the Louisiana results have intensified the scramble for second place and Alexander's campaign, which has made some progress in private polls recently, took Gramm's failure in Louisiana as a good sign for the Tennessean, who also has been trying to cast himself as an outsider.

"If people see this as a contest between a Washington insider, a Wall Street insider and a guy who wants to build a wall around America, it could make them look for an alternative, who might be us," said Mark Merritt, Alexander's press secretary.