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Down to the Wire

Ask Red Berenson what his team's chances are of winning the CCHA season title, and he'll tell you that they're pretty good.

Ask Michigan State coach Ron Mason the same question, and you will get the same response.

That's because if either team wins the rest of its games, they'll get to carry home a nice big trophy, the No. 1 seed in the CCHA playoffs and an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

The only problem is the Wolverines and Spartans must face each other twice before the tournament begins three weeks from now. The first of the two cross-state showdowns is tomorrow at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit at 7 p.m. -- a day after Michigan (18-4-2 CCHA, 23-5-2 overall) takes on Notre Dame (8-20-3, 15-17-3) at the Palace of Auburn Hills.

The game against the Irish was moved from Yost Ice Arena to the Palace because the original Jan. 20 meeting between the two moved from Auburn Hills to Ann Arbor.

The Wolverines aren't looking past Notre Dame -- a loss in any of Michigan's final six games would likely cost them a shot at the league title -- but it's tomorrow's affair that is a little more intriguing.

Both teams are in complete control of their own destiny. If either the Wolverines or the Spartans (25-7-0, 21-4-0) can win both matchups, they're in good shape.

"Right now, we're in the driver's seat," Berenson said.

Funny thing. Mason said the exact same thing. Unless the CCHA is a driver's training car with two steering wheels, something's got to give.

To make matters even more interesting, two other teams -- Western Michigan and Lake Superior State -- have almost as good a chance of wearing the conference crown as anybody.

The Broncos leap-frogged Michigan with a 4-1 win over Notre Dame Tuesday and the Lakers are just two points behind Michigan.

Every team except Western Michigan plays each other in the next three weeks, so the only thing that is for sure is that all four teams can finish in the top spot or in fourth place.

Here's the outlook (You may want to brush up on your math skills first):

* Michigan State

The No. 5 Spartans have the best record in the CCHA and have sat atop the league standings since the new year. They clearly have the upper hand because they are three points ahead of every other team.

However, Michigan State has played one more game than Michigan and Lake Superior -- which means its lead could shrink by two points without having a chance to make up the difference.

But, the second-place Broncos have played one more game than the Spartans, which can only help. The key for Michigan State is to beat Lake Superior tonight at the Joe -- a venue that the Spartans found so much success in during the 1980s, fans dubbed it "Munn East", in honor of their home rink.

Then they'll only need a split with Michigan coupled with wins on the road against Notre Dame and at Munn against fifth-place Bowling Green to secure their first regular-season title since they won two straight in 1989 and 1990.

That would put Michigan State in a first-place tie with the Broncos and give the title to the Spartans due to a 2-1 series edge.

* Michigan

The fourth-ranked Wolverines are in somewhat of a bind, even though they control their own fate. Michigan dropped to third place with Western's victory Tuesday.

Tying Ohio State twice and dropping a 6-5 decision to Bowling Green the last week of January didn't help matters either. Even worse for the Wolverines, should both teams find themselves tied for first place at the end of the season, the Broncos win the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Wolverines also have the toughest schedule of the four teams. After this weekend's games, Michigan makes a long trip to Lake Superior, then meets Michigan State and Bowling Green on the last weekend of the season.

Even if the Wolverines beat Bowling Green, sweep the Lakers and get by Notre Dame, two wins over the Spartans is a lot to ask.

If Michigan and Michigan State split, Berenson will have to root for Lake Superior and Bowling Green to knock the Spartans off. A tie would favor Michigan State.

If the Wolverines split with the Lakers, but manage to take two games from the Spartans, then only one team will need to beat the Spartans because the Wolverines would hold a 2-1 series advantage.

* Western Michigan

The No. 7 Broncos certainly have the easiest remaining schedule of any team. They entertain Miami (Ohio) tomorrow and then travel to eighth-place Alaska-Fairbanks for three games next week.

If Western had swept Michigan State last week, coach Bill Wilkinson would be partying in Kalamazoo right now.

The Broncos have played one more game than Michigan State and two more than both Michigan and Lake State. Even if they can go unbeaten in their next four games, the Broncos need Michigan State to lose twice and Michigan at least tie once to win the title.

* Lake Superior State

Okay, here's where it gets a little tricky. If the sixth-ranked Lakers win their remaining six games, they'll be wearing championship rings no matter what any other team does.

Lake Superior already has the series edge over the Spartans and Michigan State has played one more game than the Lakers. So if Lake State beats Michigan State and either Ohio State or Miami (Ohio) the first weekend of March, everything comes down to head-to-head play.

If the Lakers split with Michigan and win the rest of their games, including tonight against the Spartans, they'll need the Broncos to tie once and Michigan State to lose one other game. Michigan would have to lose another game as well.