 | Samuel Goodstein Grand Illusion |
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Since the day after the Democrats' disastrous showing in the 1994 elections, President Clinton has known that a move to the middle was his best, and probably only, hope for re-election. Since that day, the president has essentially been a moderate Republican - one of the only in Washington -turning his back on the Democrats' traditional base time and again. But after dismantling the welfare state, trampling on civil liberties and running a centrist campaign with the vision of a candidate for the school board - with major campaign ideas including school uniforms, preventing teenage smoking, ensuring all third graders can read and more wholesome television for children - the president will win today, and can finally look beyond the next election.
The aftermath of triangulation remains the most important unanswered question of this campaign. After masterfully redefining himself yet again, how will Clinton act out the final scene of his political drama? One can hardly be sure. But is is clear that Clinton appreciates history and wants to be remembered as a great president, one who make a lasting difference. The following issues will arise in his second term, issues where vision and a sense of history must supersede standard political calculations.
Entitlement Reform: Without serious entitlement reform, any plan to balance the budget is a joke. Congress and the president might agree to slash every program under the sun, but without a change in the basic financing of Social Security and Medicare, the federal government will approach bankruptcy by the year 2030. That may seem like a long time off, but the sooner a solution is put together, the less painful it will be. Without facing the pressures of re-election, the president has a golden opportunity to cut off the entitlement crisis before it really hits - a bipartisan, blue ribbon commission could give both the president and Congress the political cover necessary to act. Clinton can either be the president that steered the nation clear of fiscal disaster, or a president of whom historians will one day question: Why didn't he do something?
Foreign Policy: Clinton began his term as commander-in-chief with a string of strategic miscalculations, most importantly in Somalia and Bosnia. With a combination of positive events over which he had little control (now-fragile Middle East peace, Russian stability and a downturn in terrorism) and some good diplomatic work, (most apparent in the Bosnian peace accords, the restoration of democracy in Haiti and the aversion of war in Korea) Clinton has turned his record around. Unfortunately, the world is about to become a much uglier place. Peace in the Middle East is deteriorating by the day, Russia faces the prospects of a destabilizing transition of power, all sides in Bosnia admit that renewed fighting is a distinct possibility after NATO troops withdraw and - perhaps most important - U.S. relations with China are tenuous. If the president can drive Benjamin Netanyahu back to the table, ensure that NATO troops and resources remain in Bosnia as long as necessary and engage China in a real dialogue over the future relations of the two countries, historians will view his foreign policy as successful. If not, history will be a very harsh judge.
Campaign Finance Reform: The electorate overwhelmingly supports an overhaul of campaign finance laws. Public funding of presidential campaigns has been a success, and a similar model should be adopted for Congressional elections - this would reduce corruption, the power of soft money, the influence of special interest groups, and most important, would allow candidates to focus more on the campaign and less on fundraising. The political mood is ripe for swift action - again, a bipartisan commission could make recommendations that would give the president and a Republican Congress cover for action.
Economic transition to the information age: Despite the hoopla over 10 million new jobs created, the fact remains that wages are largely stagnant and families have to work harder and longer to maintain a constant standard of living. The president can help encourage, and soften, the transition to the information age by initiating economic reforms and changes in education to help ensure that families will not be overwhelmed; much as Progressive reformers helped move the country from an agrarian society to an industrial one.
For the first time in his political life, Bill Clinton will be able to act without concern over his electoral future. If he can avoid being bogged down by the never-ending scandals that hatch in his White House, there is an opportunity to make visionary changes; he understands this as well as anybody. The voters are done deciding Clinton's fate. History is the only judge left.
- Samuel Goodstein can be reached over e-mail at faygo@umich.edu.