The battle for support and votes in Michigan is one Republicans and Democrats aren't willing to concede easily this year. Frequent visits to the state, thousands of dollars in advertising and high-profile endorsements are evidence of Bob Dole and President Clinton's determination to collect Michigan's 18 electoral votes and all the influence and significance that comes with them on Nov. 5.
"Neither Bob Dole or Bill Clinton can win the election without winning Michigan," said Justin Leites of the Clinton/Gore Coordinated Campaign in Michigan.
While the state delivered for Clinton by a safe margin in '92, it also lost a previously Democratic seat in the U.S. Senate and re-elected a Republican governor in 1994.
Michigan's elected officials in the national spotlight include Republican Gov. John Engler, who was rumored as a finalist for the vice presidential spot on the Dole ticket, Detroit Mayor Dennis Archer, who had a prominent role at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and Democratic Sen. Carl Levin, considered the favorite to chair the Senate Armed Forces Committee if re-elected in a Democratic majority.
"Michigan's a state where we were just a superstar (in 1994)," said Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour in a teleconference earlier this week.
This division in party loyalty is characteristic of the Michigan delegation, said Rep. Lynn Rivers (D-Ann Arbor).
"Michigan is a state of ticket-splitters," Rivers said.
Political science Prof. John Kingdon disagreed with the "ticket-splitter" label, however. Voters make race-by-race assessments and decisions, he said.
"I don't think voters make up their minds that way - sometimes it ends up that it has a split-ticket effect and sometimes it doesn't," Kingdon said.
When both parties officially left the starting blocks after their national conventions in August, they were already declaring Michigan essential to victory.
"If Bob Dole carries Michigan, Bill Clinton cannot be re-elected," Engler said in Chicago during the Democratic National Convention this summer.
As Republicans watch Dole's rating in Michigan polls come in consistently behind Clinton's, it is split-ticket voting that many Republican candidates are counting on to give them the support Dole's coattail effect may not deliver.
Communication studies Prof. Michael Traugott said candidates know they can't count on straight-ticket voting because the country lacks "responsible parties" who would receive unconditional support from their members.
"It's every man and woman for himself on election day," he said.
Experts have predicted that party emphasis will shift from a lagging presidential campaign to more winnable congressional races.
"The real contest is going to be for control of the House and Senate," Traugott said.
While Dole supporters don't admit to abandoning ship in the race for the White House, they are quite vocal about extensive - and expensive - efforts to retain congressional seats snagged in '94, and picking up a few more along the way.
"(Dole) says he's the underdog and behind in the polls," Barbour said. "Winning control and keeping control of legislative chambers is a key goal for us."
Dole and Clinton have kept Michigan in sight throughout the campaign, not letting a month slip by without a personal visit from at least one candidate or spouse from the presidential ticket.
"I have never seen so many visits," said communication studies Prof. Trevor Thrall.
Yesterday's visit to Ypsilanti marked Clinton's fourth visit to the state since his official nomination in August, and Dole's visit tomorrow will be the Republican nominee's fifth time in the state.
"This is a battleground state and we're going to be here a lot," Dole said. "Michigan is changing. More and more people are looking at the Republican party here because we have ideas."
Experts have speculated candidates are lured to Michigan because much of the coveted Reagan Democrat base calls southeast Michigan home. Dole is hoping the conservative Democrats will return to the Republican party, and Clinton is making an effort to convince them not to stray again from their Democratic roots, Thrall said.
Clinton and Dole each have special groups to court in the state, Traugott said. The unionized section of the electorate has lent support in name and contributions to the Clinton campaign, while western Michigan's "religious right" looks to the Republicans.
Considering the voting blocks and support to be gained here, it is surprising that there has been a lack of heavy advertising, especially by the Dole/Kemp campaign, Traugott said. It's made for "a dull campaign in Michigan," he said.
Michigan's 21 electoral votes aren't the only prize for the candidate who takes the state. Its geographic position as a leader in the Midwest trio of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana and its role as an economic model in the automotive industry means the weight it throws can impact voting trends beyond its borders.
Both candidates saw potential to gain ground in the state, Traugott said. Their internal polls probably showed the two candidates closer than they actually have been for voters, he said.
Engler's visibility during the Michigan campaign has brought eyes and candidates to the state. Engler cites Michigan's economic growth in the past few years as evidence for the economic programs Dole proposes. An economic summit sponsored by the Republican Governors' Association brought Dole and running mate Jack Kemp to Detroit last week, where they and Republican governors from across the nation touted their plan to cut taxes 15 percent, balance the budget and offer families a $500-per-child tax break.
"We've done these things at the state level - we know they work," said Engler, RGA chair.
Engler has continued efforts to steal the thunder from the Clinton/Gore campaign when Democrats claim credit for a boost in Michgan's economy.
Engler's economic tactics in Michigan won't translate well on a national scale, Rivers said.
"You can't compare state economies to national economies because states compete with each other," Rivers said.