If the stories swirling through the teeming streets of the capital and dark corridors of parliament are true, those closest to President Mobutu Sese Seko have booked 400 hotel rooms across the river in the Congolese capital, Brazzaville, in case they have to flee. And Mobutu's presidential guards are smuggling their families out of town under cover of darkness.
With half the country in rebel hands and opposition to Mobutu gaining momentum, the questions in the capital may have changed: It's no longer whether the rebels will reach Kinshasa, but when. And, will it be soon enough to forestall an uprising by soldiers and civilians demanding an end to more than 31 years of bullying and corrupt rule.
In public, Mobutu and his backers still perform as if there are battles left for them to fight in a war that most political observers say was lost long ago. A "major government communique" read on state-run TV Thursday night denounced an American company's billion-dollar deal to mine copper, cobalt and zinc in rebel-held territory and declared it "null and void."
Never mind that the government itself is null and void in that part of Zaire and that its credibility is in as much jeopardy as the national currency, now trading at 175,000 to the U.S. dollar.
The question is whether the cancer-ridden Mobutu, despite his efforts to appear in control, has accepted the reality and is prepared to negotiate his exit before rebel leader Laurent Kabila comes to town.
"He has no choice. He has no army. He has lost the support of the people, There's no money left in the state treasury," said Jose Zola Kinkela, secretary-general of the Independent Democratic Union party. "Kabila will take the country - there's no doubt about it."
Mobutu's best move, say Zola and others, would be to salvage what honor he has left by retiring into foreign exile before he and those linked to his regime are forced to flee.
That could involve announcing he will not contest long-promised presidential elections in exchange for Kabila halting his advance on Kinshasa and accepting a transitional government until voting takes place. Despite Kabila's war talk, international persuasion could force him to accept such a scenario, said Valentin Mubake Nombi, an opposition lawmaker who attended negotiations in South Africa last month between government and rebel envoys.
"I think Mr. Kabila has to stop now, because although he's a war chief, he also wants to govern this country. To do this, he has to win over the public opinion, and to do this he has to act as a politician, not a dictator," said Mubake. "The last thing Zairians want is another Mobutu, and the last thing the international community will accept is another Mobutu."
If the 66-year-old ruler refuses to go voluntarily, Western diplomats say he and his confidantes surely will be forced to make a humiliating flight as Kabila closes in. Or Mobutu may die of his disease, an option the stubborn dictator might prefer. In 1991, when international pressure and public discontent forced him to introduce political reforms, he vowed never to be the ex-president of Zaire - only the late president.
Kabila claims he'll take Kinshasa within three weeks, which Western diplomats say is reasonable given his army's rate of progress and the momentum it builds by attracting new recruits along the way. Many of the recruits are youngsters with no battlefield training, but others are ex-Zairian soldiers who have changed sides.
AP PHOTO
The flag of Laurent Kabila's rebel force is flown in the Zairian capital of Kinshasa yesterday. With half the country in rebel hands and opposition to Zaire President Mobutu Sese Seko growing many are preparing to flee the country.