Nation's top defense faces biggest hurdle

So here we sit on the eve of Judgment Day, when the fate of No. 4 Michigan and No. 2 Penn State will be determined and the Rose Bowl front-runner will be anointed by victory. But through all the hype, it's the same old story: Michigan's defense.

The Wolverines have the nation's top-rated overall defense, scoring defense and pass efficiency defense, and they have the nation's fifth-ranked rushing defense. Of course, the Nittany Lions have the Big Ten's best total offense, but the Wolverines have already bottled up Iowa, which still has the league's top scoring offense.

"Michigan has the finest defense in college football," Iowa coach Hayden Fry said Tuesday. "I just don't see anybody moving the ball with any consistency against" the Wolverines.

That could add up to a Michigan victory, though it will be awfully close, most coaches agree. Northwestern's Gary Barnett has lost to both teams this season, and sees the game simply.

"I really think it does come down to whether Penn State can move the ball on Michigan's defense," Barnett said Tuesday. "It's going to be a physical game."

Michigan rushing offense vs. Penn State rushing defense: The Wolverines are averaging 193.6 yards rushing per game, fourth-best in the league, while the Lions are allowing an average of 133.7, fifth-best. Things should be about even, but they're not.

Linebacker Brandon Short is expected to return to the lineup from an ankle injury for Penn State, leaving the banged-up Wolverines in trouble. Chris Howard (ribs), Chris Floyd (shoulder) and Clarence Williams (hamstring) all have had recent health problems. Though all are expected to play, the Wolverines are handicapped.

To have any success, Michigan's often-penalized offensive line must be disciplined and the running backs must be tough. And linebacker Jim Nelson, who leads Penn State with 60 tackles, must be blocked. He had a season-high 11 tackles in a big victory over Ohio State, as the Lions held the Buckeyes to 106 yards rushing.

Edge: Penn State

Michigan passing offense vs. Penn State passing defense: Two-way man Charles Woodson played more on offense last week against Minnesota than ever before in his Michigan career. Considering he had seemed held back beforehand, maybe Michigan coach Lloyd Carr has been saving him for this weekend. If so, look out.

Michigan has a mediocre passing attack, and Penn State has a mediocre pass defense. But, with a little help from their defense, the Wolverines haven't had a problem putting up enough points to win. A large chunk of that is due to the running game, but for the most part, quarterback Brian Griese has been reliable.

A guy like Woodson, if he gets the ball enough, could make all the difference.

Edge: Michigan

Penn State rushing offense vs. Michigan rushing defense: With one of the most complex blocking schemes in all of college football, the Lions' offensive line neutralized the best linebacker in the land, Ohio State's Andy Katzenmoyer, earlier this season. Curtis Enis ran for more than 200 yards and carried his team to victory.

But the Wolverines boast a much deeper defense than the Buckeyes, and they are fifth-best in the nation against the run, allowing just 78.4 yards per game. Michigan defensive coordinator Jim Herrmann said Saturday that Penn State will pose a stiff challenge but that he also was confident that challenge could be met.

Enis will have an especially difficult time exploding for a lot of yardage, because fullback Aaron Harris, who helped out against Ohio State, is sidelined with a knee injury.

Edge: Michigan

Penn State passing offense vs. Michigan passing defense: This could be the most intriguing matchup of the game. Quarterback Mike McQueary hit wide receiver Joe Jurevicius for more than a few big plays earlier this year, and though their big-play production has dropped off as defenses have become smarter, they remain the Lions' most potent threat.

Woodson will no doubt guard Jurevicius, who said Wednesday that he's looking forward to the one-on-one test against the best coverage corner in the college game. The weather likely will be rainy, and on a soggy field, the receiver has the advantage because he knows where he is going.

Problem is, Woodson reacts too well, and he's got Marcus Ray supporting him. Penn State throws for 223.9 yards per game, but Michigan doesn't have the best secondary in the land for nothing.

Edge: Michigan

Special teams: So the Wolverines blocked a punt last week. Big deal. They've also given up 60-yard punt returns for touchdowns recently, have had their own punts blocked and have missed field goals. If it does rain, and the Wolverines can't convert on field goals because of slippery turf, it could mean the game this time.

The Lions' Travis Forney is 6-of-8 on field goals, but he hasn't missed an attempt from inside 40 yards.

Edge: Penn State

So far, Michigan is having a magical season that no one outside Schembechler Hall expected. Penn State, though undefeated, has been disappointing, narrowly escaping with victories against Minnesota and Northwestern.

Don't forget, though, that the Lions played at a higher level than normal in their huge home victory over Ohio State a month ago, and they could do so again, beating Michigan handily. But as good as the Wolverines are defensively, it isn't likely.

Prediction: Michigan 20, Penn State 19.

The Tale of Two Cities
No. 4 Michigan 5-0 Big Ten 8-0 overall	No. 2 Penn State 4-0 Big Ten 7-0 overall
Ann Arbor Population: 109,592 Stadium name: Michigan Stadium Stadium Capacity: 102,501 Favorite Projectile: Marshmallows Famous alumnus: James Earl Jones	State College Population: 38,923 Stadium name: Beaver Stadium Stadium Capacity: 93,967 Favorite Projectile: Snowballs Famous alumnus: Mary Ellen Clark

11-07-97