Uncouth 'Cats don't have winning look

The first time, it was the law of averages manifesting itself. The second time, it was just a stroke of luck.

What would it be called then, if mighty Michigan lost to questionably clad Northwestern for the third year in a row?

Cataclysmic? At least for Ann Arbor folk.

That label would be even more appropriate this season since the talent disparity between these two teams is greater than in recent years. Whether people want to believe it or not, the Wildcats had the personnel on the field and the coaching that proved that they were one of the nation's top 10 or 15 teams.

But now all that remains, more or less, from those back-to-back conference champion teams is the coaching. And unless Gary Barnett shows he can run the 40 in 4.2 seconds and has eligibility remaining, Northwestern's surprising term of domination will come to an end.

Michigan rushing offense vs. Northwestern rushing defense: The Wildcats didn't rise to national prominence behind a strong defense. In fact, if there has been one aspect of their game that has prevented them from really stepping into the nation's super-elite teams, it has been their inability to stop the run. Even with two-time Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Pat Fitzgerald anchoring the Northwestern front seven, the Wildcats still allowed almost 140 yards per game on the ground.

Now - with the departure of Fitzgerald, fellow linebacker Tim Scharf and nose tackle Matt Rice - that number has jumped to 205 yards per game.

How compatible. Behind Chris Howard, Anthony Thomas, Clarence Williams and Chris Floyd, Michigan is averaging 201 yards rushing per game. The numbers should play out just fine for Michigan.

Edge: Michigan

Michigan passing offense vs. Northwestern passing defense: If the Wildcats' defense has a strong suit, it is its secondary, spearheaded by a pair of safeties, Eric Collier and Mike Nelson, who are as good as any in the Big Ten.

But going over the middle has not been characteristic of Michigan's passing attack the past few weeks, especially against Indiana, when quarterback Brian Griese turned dump-off passes to his backs in the flat into 20-yard gains.

There's no reason why Michigan would turn away from that approach, considering Northwestern's defense, like Indiana's, tends to over-pursue, which often leaves the backs wide open.

Edge: Michigan

Northwestern rushing offense vs. Michigan rushing defense: Unlike Michigan's diversified backfield attack, in which any one of four backs could go for 100 yards, Northwestern puts all of its eggs in senior Adrian Autry's basket.

Not related to former Wildcats All-American Darnell Autry, Adrian has turned out performances similar to those of his namesake, rushing past the century mark in three of his past four games.

As Colorado's Herchell Troutman and Notre Dame's Autry Denson will attest, a good resume is merely a good starting point against Michigan's front seven and nothing else. The Wolverines held both to less than 3.5 yards per carry and weren't the least bit intimidated by their usually overpowering offensive lines.

Northwestern's line, contrary to its nickname, isn't very wild nor very good for that matter. Indiana's De'Wayne Hogan will get some company in those whose confidence has been destroyed by a Michigan run defense that has proven its preseason critics wrong.

Edge: Michigan

Northwestern passing offense vs. Michigan passing defense: Northwestern quarterback Tim Hughes should be seeing a lot of Michigan all-everything Charles Woodson.

Not because Michigan has some secret corner blitz attack planned, but because Hughes is also the Wildcats' punter and should be sending a bunch of kicks Woodson's way.

Northwestern's passing game has surprised many in light of the loss of quarterback Steve Schnur to graduation and receiver D'Wayne Bates to a season-ending knee injury in the preseason. Receiver Brian Musso has picked up Bates' slack and has proceeded to catch 34 passes, the most in the Big Ten.

But after Musso, Hughes' options are limited, meaning that as long as Michigan sticks Woodson on Musso, Hughes will either become much more acquainted with his other receivers or his long snapper's rear end, which he'll see virtually every fourth down.

Edge: Michigan

Special teams: Northwestern kicker Brian Gowins earned All-Big Ten honors last season and seems to be on his way to repeating this year. At a time where reliability is paramount among kickers, Gowins has been just that, connecting on 12 of 16 attempts this season.

But let's not forget about how far the Michigan kicking game has come since the beginning of the season. Kraig Baker has overcome early-season jitters and has settled into his role; Jay Feely has been almost automatic in getting touchbacks on kickoffs; and Jason Vinson has given everyone in Ann Arbor reason to believe that walk-ons are not bottom-of-the-barrel kids looking to get a cool uniform.

Vinson better get off some good kicks because Musso, the Wildcats' return man, is averaging almost 13 yards each time he brings one back.

Edge: Even

They said it couldn't be done the first time when the men in purple pants waltzed into Michigan Stadium with nothing to lose. They laughed when the proposal came up again the following year with Michigan holding a 16-point fourth-quarter lead. Barnett, though, is such a great coach that he alters the view of this game from an automatic Michigan victory to one Northwestern could steal.

Start doing those wind sprints, Gary, because it isn't looking good for you otherwise:

Michigan 30, Northwestern 10

10-10-97