Shortly after Michigan and Michigan State made a mess of his Indiana Hoosiers on successive weekends, coach Cam Cameron made a simple assessment: "The two teams are twins."
Both have dominating defenses. Both have decent, balanced offenses. Both have big men that can pound you into submission. Both have big-play men that can suck out your spirit in one moment. And both have something to prove.
Tomorrow's brother-against-brother showdown in East Lansing between the fifth-ranked Wolverines and 15th-ranked Spartans will be just that, a meeting of members of the same mold. The winner will be the team that remains true to itself and can force the other to abandon its strengths.
That bodes well for the Wolverines, whose defense has been a savior all season and has yet to buckle. But it will be close. Extremely close.
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| SARA STILLMAN/Daily Chris Howard is banged up, another reason why Michigan's ground game, may not be able to run through the Spartans' stiffling rush defense. Michigan State enters the contest with the Big Ten's second best defense, behind only Michigan. |
Fullback Chris Floyd, who missed last week's game against Iowa, should return and provide some punch for the Wolverines. Running back Chris Howard, however, still may be feeling the effects of a rib injury he sustained late in the first half against the Hawkeyes.
The Wolverines have been mum about Howard's health, worried that a smart shot by a Michigan State linebacker could cause serious problems. Watch closely for future developments.
Edge: Michigan State
Michigan passing offense vs. Michigan State passing defense: Here, too, Michigan is rather mediocre, while the Spartans are formidable. But this may be the most even matchup in a quite evenly matched game.
Quarterback Brian Griese has had a good year, playing dependable, smart football. Before his three interceptions last week - two of which were the results of poorly run routes, according to one offensive player - he'd only thrown one all season.
Griese's numbers help put the Wolverines' passing offense fourth in the Big Ten with 223.5 yards per game. Michigan State is fourth in pass defense, allowing 191.0 yards per game. And since defense usually gets the nod head-to-head, the Spartans look good.
(But Michigan coach Lloyd Carr has promised Charles Woodson will play more two-way football as the weather gets colder and less taxing. Tempratures should be in the high 40s by kickoff, and that might be cool enough for Woodson - and the Wolverines - to heat up.)
Edge: Michigan State
Michigan State rushing offense vs. Michigan rushing defense: Sedrick Irvin is darn good, and so is his sidekick, Marc Renaud. But neither is averaging 100 yards per game behind a mountainous offensive line, and if they can't eclipse that level tomorrow, they won't be able to carry the Spartans.
Michigan State is averaging 187.3 yards rushing per game. That's all right. But that's not going to cut it against the second-best rushing defense in the land, which allows just 73.7 yards per game.
The Wolverines didn't flinch last week against Tavian Banks, the nation's leading rusher. For them to worry about Irvin and Renaud would be out of character.
Edge: Michigan
Michigan State passing offense vs. Michigan passing defense: The one place Michigan State differs the most from Michigan, Cameron said, is quarterback - as in Todd Schultz is more talented than Griese. That may very well be true, but it also won't matter a bit.
Just as they have faced some of the nation's best backs and stuffed them, the Wolverines have frustrated some of the nation's best quarterbacks. Iowa's Matt Sherman came to Ann Arbor last week as one of the best in the Big Ten. He threw three interceptions and finished 8-for-21 for 86 yards and no touchdowns.
Schultz won't dare throw at Woodson, and so he'll contend with Marcus Ray, who had two interceptions last week. That type of talent is what gives Michigan the nation's top scoring defense, which has allowed 8.3 points per game and hasn't allowed a point in the fourth quarter all season.
Edge: Michigan
Special teams: The Spartans are good on returns, third in the Big Ten at 24.5 yards per kickoff return and second at 12.2 yards per punt return. But they absolutely stink at punting, dead last at 30.2 yards per punt.
Problem is, Michigan averages just 19.1 yards on kickoff returns, 8.8 yards on punt returns and 34.7 yards per punt. Considering the Wolverines had a punt blocked and another returned for a touchdown last week, they've got problems.
Edge: Michigan State
The way things stack up, Michigan State has a tremendous opportunity to spoil Michigan's sterling record. Playing at home, in an environment that has been conducive historically to favorable calls and otherworldly breaks, the Spartans have a good enough team to win and look good in the process.
But as alike as the two teams seem, Michigan's defense is better than its brother's - arguably better than anyone's - and that will make all the difference in a tight, exciting game.
Prediction: Michigan 16, Michigan State 13.
10-24-97
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