National high school graduation rate rising

The number of high school graduates across the nation is expected to increase, but University administrators say they do not have any plans to accommodate the rise.

According to a new study released jointly by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education in Boulder, Colo. and the College Board, the number of high school graduates in the nation is expected to peak at 3.2 million in the year 2008 - a 26-percent increase from 1996.

In the state of Michigan, the projected change between the 1995-96 and 2011-12 school years is a 14-percent increase.

"We are in a period now that we refer to as the baby boom echo, so this is producing kind of an increase," said Cheryl Blanco, director of policy and information at WICHE. "It, of course, isn't the same for every state, although Michigan does peak at around the same time as most of the other states."

Blanco said the next 10 years will be difficult times for universities attempting to make room for the rush of high school graduates.

"There are states that are really struggling with issues of what to do with their universities to accommodate for the increase," Blanco said. "They're trying to make better use of facilities, and some states are really turning to technology. But most states are trying to avoid and work around building new structures and campuses."

But for the University, the increase in high school graduates is not expected to affect enrollment, said Ted Spencer, director of undergraduate admissions.

"I think that while it is a good sign, I seriously doubt that we will change our (admissions) policies based solely on these statistics," Spencer said. "Keep in mind that just because you have a large number of high school graduates, it does not mean that you have a large number of students going on to college."

Spencer said that creating a larger University, in terms of population, would not necessarily be in the best interests of the students because it could cause the quality of education to decline.

"If we want to provide more of an education where we could offer many living-learning experiences for our students, then the size we are right now is fairly comfortable for most people," Spencer said.

Provost Nancy Cantor said that while these estimates are helpful for long-term planning, the University currently is not changing its academic programs or the size of the faculty to accommodate for the increase.

"We will clearly need to consider these population projections closely as we plan for the coming years," Cantor said. But "we do not intend to change our programs at this point."

Alan Levy, director of Housing public affairs, said that while he does not know of any current plans to accommodate a possible increase, he said that Housing and dining services would be included if they were to occur.

"If the University did decide to increase its size, I assume Housing would be one of the units involved in discussions," Levy said.

The report, which is released every four or five years, takes into consideration migration patterns, birth and mortality statistics obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau and enrollment and dropout figures received from each state's department of education.

Nevada has the largest projected change in graduating seniors, at 134 percent, and West Virginia - one of five states expected to have declines -will have the largest drop, at 17 percent.

03-26-98