With two games left in the Big Ten season, college football's bowl picture is as cloudy as ever. Michigan's early-season woes are all but forgotten, now that the Rose Bowl is once again a distinct possibility. At the same time, Michigan's early-season woes are not completely forgotten - several other, lesser bowls are also still distinct possibilities.
Without further ado, let's break it down.
Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl if ... : The Wolverines win the Big Ten outright. This part is pretty simple, really, because they control their own destiny.
If Michigan beats Wisconsin and Ohio State to finish 8-0 in the Big Ten, it's on to Pasadena for the second straight season. Period. But aside from that, there's not much of a back-door plan for making the Rose Parade - Michigan must win its next two games to be sure it's goin' back to Cali. ... unless ...
There is one other, tiny, oh-so-remote possibility here. If Wisconsin wins out, and, through a modern mathematical miracle, manages to finish as the nation's No. 1 or No. 2 Bowl Championship Series team - granted, a near-impossibility because of schedule strength factors - then the undefeated Badgers would go to the Fiesta Bowl, giving a 7-1 Michigan team a trip to the Rose Bowl.
This scenario, however, would require Kansas State, Tennessee and UCLA to lose in the season's final weeks, and may even necessitate losses by Arkansas and Tulane, both of which are also undefeated.
Michigan goes to the Citrus Bowl if ... : The Wolverines finish in second place in the Big Ten. How can this happen? Pretty easily. Three things have to take place: 1) Michigan beats Wisconsin; 2) Michigan loses to Ohio State; and 3) Wisconsin loses to Penn State in two weeks.
Ohio State and Michigan would then tie for the Big Ten title, with 7-1 records. Ohio State would go to the Rose Bowl based on the head-to-head tiebreaker, and Michigan, as the conference's No. 2 team, would go to the Jan. 1 Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Fla.
Michigan goes to the Outback Bowl if ... : The Wolverines finish the season as the Big Ten's third-place team. From the common fan's point of view, this might actually be the most likely scenario. Here's what has to happen: Michigan must beat Wisconsin, then lose to Ohio State; and Wisconsin must beat Penn State in its final game to force a three-way tie at the top of the conference (each team would be 7-1).
The Rose Bowl is then decided on tiebreakers, and because Ohio State and Wisconsin don't play each other, the head-to-head formula doesn't work. Wisconsin gets the nod, because Michigan's overall record is the worst of the three, and Ohio State, though identical in record to the Badgers, has made the more recent trip to Pasadena.
Because Ohio State would have beaten Michigan, the Buckeyes would win the rights to the conference's No. 2 spot, and thus would go to the Citrus Bowl. Michigan, as the No. 3 team, would go to Tampa, Fla., for the Outback Bowl on Jan.1.
Michigan goes to the Alamo Bowl if ... : The Wolverines are the fourth team chosen from the Big Ten. This is highly unlikely, but can happen if Penn State is chosen ahead of the Wolverines. Michigan would likely have to lose both of its remaining conference games, and Penn State would have to win out.
Both teams would then share 6-2 Big Ten records, but Penn State's overall record would be better than Michigan's. The Alamo Bowl is Dec. 29 in San Antonio, Texas.
The qualifier: In reality, the Rose Bowl scenario is the only concrete one. Because of BCS and conference champion tie-in reasons, the choices there are limited.
After the Rose Bowl, however, none of this is guaranteed. The Citrus Bowl, while entitled to the second selection of Big Ten teams, does not necessarily have to choose the team that finished in second place. The same goes for the Outback and Alamo Bowls. For that reason, the above scenarios are in fact nothing more than likelihoods.
11-12-98
| Previous Article |
should be sent to: daily.letters@umich.edu | should be sent to: online.daily@umich.edu |