Michigan offense will be too much for Iowa to overcome

Tomorrow, the dam is going to break.

Someone, someone, is going to do it. It'll happen tomorrow.

Either Michigan or Iowa is going to break the illustrious .500 mark.

Now calm down, everyone. Take a few deep breaths. People all around the nation are eagerly anticipating the emergence of one of these powerhouses of the 1998 season.

Michigan, after doing away with highly touted Eastern Michigan and overachieving Michigan State, can now look ahead and prepare for the brutal stretch of the season: Iowa, followed by a bye week, then Northwestern, Indiana and Minnesota.

You can almost hear the Wolverines' teeth rattling.

The Hawkeyes, on the other hand, are ecstatic after their monumental victory over conference heavyweight Illinois. Along with a stunning victory over Central Michigan in the season opener, Iowa is prepared for a breakthrough game.

Someone is going to be .600 after this game. The tension mounts.

So here, in week five, are the matchups:

Michigan passing offense vs. Iowa passing defense

Each game, Tom Brady seems to be learning more and more about how to run a Division I offense. Although he threw one interception last week early in the game, coach Lloyd Carr raved about Brady's mental toughness and his ability to bounce back.

Brady's 208-yard passing performance earned him Big Ten co-player of the week honors. The biggest improvement by Brady and the passing attack was finding tight end Jerame Tuman last week.

If Brady spreads the wealth again, Michigan should be able to exploit Iowa's pass defense - the fourth-worst in the conference with only one interception to its credit.

Edge: Michigan

Michigan rushing offense vs. Iowa rushing defense

The Wolverines are starting to find their running legs, it seems. Last week, Anthony Thomas and Clarence Williams carried the bulk of the load. Carr's effort to find consistency in the backfield paid off and both upperclassmen tailbacks had big games.

That just leaves freshman Justin Fargas out of the loop. Still, with just two people rotating in the backfield, it's easier for each to get into a rhythm. All indications are that the ground game has returned for the Wolverines.

There's only one question: Is the running game back or did they just exploit the worst run defense in the Big Ten (read: Michigan State)?

Iowa features Jared DeVries on the defensive line, a man who almost singlehandedly beat Michigan last season - in Carr's words.

Will DeVries be enough to stop the running game? Probably not, since even he said that he's better rushing the passer.

Edge: Michigan

Iowa passing offense vs. Michigan passing defense

The Michigan secondary showed signs of life against below-average quarterback Bill Burke last week. Safety DeWayne Patmon had the game of his life.

Well, here's another below-average quarterback: Kyle McCann. He only completes 54.4 percent of his passes. Scott Mullen has also seen playing time in each of his four games, but he has even worse numbers.

Still, the Hawkeyes are second in the conference in passing offense. Why? Their receivers are extremely talented and make up for their quarterbacks' shortcomings.

Kahlil Hill (12.9 yards per catch), Ryan Barton (24.8) and Kevin Kasper (20.8) all have good numbers and could provide problems for a Michigan secondary that had its numbers inflated thanks to a terrible passing offense last week.

Edge: Iowa

Iowa rushing offense vs. Michigan Rushing defense

Iowa's ground game is awful. That's all that can really be said. They average just 73.8 yards per game and a measly 2.1 yards per carry. Ladell Betts is their only threat in the backfield, and he averages 50.8 yards per game.

There really aren't any bad words that can be spared in describing the Hawkeyes' running game. No matter how injured or depleted Michigan's linebacking corps is, whoever is in there should not have a problem stopping the run somewhat.

And with a resurgent defensive line and the return of linebacker Clint Copenhaver, the Wolverines will stuff the run cold.

Edge: Michigan

Special Teams

Last week Kahlil Hill returned a kick 88 yards for a touchdown.

That's nothing - he has two other returns for touchdowns this season. So that's three touchdowns on special teams alone.

Yeah, he's good. No, wait - he's the best offensive weapon Iowa has and probably the best kick returner in the country.

Carr admitted that his team has had it's problems on special teams, saying that it really isn't "strength against strength" this week against the Hawkeyes. And if James Whitley continues to let punts go through the wickets, the Wolverines will find themselves in considerably bad field position.

Or, worse yet, without a chance to play offense at all.

Jay Feely did have a breakthrough performance last week, booting three fields goals and tying a career-high 51-yarder.

And Hayden Epstein, for the most part, still kicks the ball well on kickoffs for the Wolverines.

Nevertheless, Iowa's special teams nearly won them the game last year and they might be Iowa's best chance to win it this year.

Edge: Iowa

Intangibles

Michigan needed confidence in itself, and beating the Spartans last week provided that. Momentum is a great thing, and the Wolverines have it on their side.

Iowa has the benefit of playing at Kinnick Stadium. And when the Wolverines are in town, the host almost always play its best game of the season.

The Hawkeyes beat the Illini last week - a team that has been mistaken for a high school practice squad. Michigan is following up an emotional in-state rivalry game. The Hawkeyes might not be prepared for playing against a real life college football team.

Edge: Michigan

Prediction: Michigan 35, Iowa 17

10-02-98