Clinton troubles threaten Dems' chances in elections

The debate over the president's relationship with the former White House intern is drowning out discussion of issues that Democrats want to be the primary focus of the elections, said pollsters who conducted the "Battleground '98" poll.

The poll indicates Clinton's personal problems have elevated "moral and religious issues" to the top of the voters' agenda, pollsters suggested.

"The scandals have drowned out the discussion of the issues - health care, education and Social Security - that help the Democrats," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Ed Goeas.

"The scandals have also added to the volatility of the senior voters who will be critical in low-turnout elections," she said. "Senior women, a key Democratic constituency, have been particularly troubled by recent events.''

The Lewinsky matter could demoralize Democratic voters and keep them home while motivating Republican voters to turn out at "average or higher than average levels to help cure the moral ills of politics," Lake said.

Such a disparity in turnout "could have lasting effects on the composition of Congress, statehouses and executive mansions around the country," Lake wrote in her analysis of the poll.

"It's like being on a football team that just fumbled the ball and their quarterback is injured," Goeas said of the Democrats.

"At least we have a quarterback," Lake countered. "The president is a double-edged sword. He's helped Democrats get credit on the economy and has helped neutralize Republicans on traditional issues to their advantage like balancing the budget, crime and welfare.''

The president's job approval rating, which has been over 60 percent for months, was at 56 percent in this poll. But his personal approval rating was at 26 percent, while 62 percent disapproved of him personally.

Voters' preference for Democrats or Republicans in congressional elections remains close, with Republicans at 43 percent and Democrats at 40 percent, a difference within the poll's error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

"We've known all along that this would be a close election," said Rep. Martin Frost of Texas, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "It doesn't take much to change the momentum. We've urged our candidates to keep talking about the issues.''

The poll suggested the gender gap, which has worked in Democrats' favor in recent elections, would be sharply reduced if turnout is low this year.

Goeas said the poll shows Republicans have gained among several groups of white women, notably senior citizens and women at home under age 65.

The shift in the gender gap at least partially reflects that the poll focused on people who were considered likely to vote, Lake said.

"In 1994, we had record low turnout for women," Lake said. "If that model repeats itself, that will cause problems for Democrats.''

Elderly people, long a key Democratic constituency, show no preference for Democrats this year, Lake said, adding that winning back such voters on issues like health care and Social Security will be a key.

The Democrats "have a very serious problem," said Rep. John Linder of Georgia, chairperson of the National Republican Congressional Committee. "Those people who believe in (Clinton) and those who believe in his policies will be the least likely to turn out.''

The Aug. 24-26 poll was based on telephone interviews with 1,000 likely voters.

A public survey taken just prior to this "Battleground" poll showed no erosion among likely voters. However, Goeas noted at the time that political polls like the Battleground poll tend to do a more detailed survey of voter intensity than the public polls.

09-09-98