Y2K problem could affect missiles

While many countries have been working on the so-called Y2K "millennium bug" problem for years, some key players, including Russia and China, have been slower to address it.

Last month, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre acknowledged "some nervousness" in Washington about potential computer problems in Russia. "They don't seem to have the same level of urgency that we have had over it," he said.

The man leading Russia's efforts to solve the Y2K finally responded yesterday by asking NATO and the U.S. Defense Department for advice - and money.

Russia wants all sides to "speak the same language," Alexander Krupnov, chair of the central telecommunications commission, said yesterday. "We're in a critical situation in several areas" - including the Defense Ministry.

Russia has already agreed to let NATO experts investigate the potential danger to Russian weapons systems. While an errant missile launch brought on by a computer clock failure would be highly unlikely, computer snags could sabotage radar and telecommunications networks that are the backbone for Russia's system to detect foreign launches.

Radar screens could go blank, and the bug could throw certain nuclear systems into a test pattern, which is apparently difficult to stop, making the computer system inaccessible.

"It's not that nuclear missiles are going to pop off out of silos," said Paul Beaver, an analyst with Jane's Information Group in London.

U.S. defense agencies want to place U.S. officers in Russian nuclear control rooms and Russian officers in U.S. control rooms to monitor the changeover, Beaver said.

But Russian defense officials have been stubbornly silent.

The cost of tackling the problem is staggering, especially for Russia, overwhelmed by mounting debts.

The latest estimate is $3 billion, Krupnov said yesterday. That's in a country so broke that this year's draft budget foresees just $21 billion in revenues - none of which is earmarked for the Y2K problem.

Krupnov said it was up to government agencies, including those that control military bases, air traffic and oil pipelines, to come up with their own cash.

Weapons aren't the only danger.

"The nuclear plants won't be able to get accurate temperature information, and you could have another Chernobyl," Beaver said, referring to the world's worst nuclear accident, at a Soviet plant in 1986. "And that would not just affect Russia."

Meanwhile, in China, a survey of the country's most crucial enterprises showed that more than half didn't even know how to detect the computer glitch in their systems, the official Beijing Morning Post reported yesterday.

Chinese officials doubt government ministries can meet an October deadline for fixing their systems. Little assistance is being provided to agencies and enterprises finance, aviation, telecommunications and transport sectors.

Still, many analysts say Russia and China have less to worry about than countries like the United States, because they have far fewer computers and a lower overall level of technology.

Krupnov insisted that his commission was doing everything it could.

"Who knows if the country will be ready," he said. "I can't give any guarantees."

02-04-99