Today's NCAA Tourney preview

Game of the Day: In this tournament, you're selling yourself short if you miss a game. What did you do last Thursday night? If you skipped the Carolina-Weber State game, it's a safe bet you kicked yourself for it. Any of these games could be (and probably will be) great. But, since we don't take the easy way out of picks (Connecticut in the first round notwithstanding), let's say ... No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 4 Ohio State, if you like unpredictability and action. But No. 1 Connecticut

vs No. 5 Iowa, is must-see TV if you like emotion. It could be Tom Davis' final game as Iowa coach. Iowa athletic director Bob Bowlsby is showing Davis the door after this season, in part because of Iowa's poor tournament performances in the past. Whether he loses or wins, this game will be all about him.

Upset Special: The pick I'd really like to make, of course, is No. 10 Miami (you shouldn't need to be told which one by now) over everybody's prodigal darlings, the top-ranked Wildcats. The national media have been sucking up to Tubby Smith and Co. like MSA members in University President Lee Bollinger's kitchen. If Kentucky wins, it's a tribute to Smith's ability to keep his players from looking past the RedHawks. If not, people will be shocked. They shouldn't be.

The problem with Thursday's games is there's not an underdog among them, or more accurately, they're all underdogs - Everyone's down on Auburn, Jim Calhoun at Connecticut hasn't been able to reach a Final Four yet, Maryland's overrated and the easiest pick of the lot - Florida - still doesn't get the recognition it deserves. You want upsets? Don't give up on Iowa - the only ones who have sign Davis' paycheck.

Sure Thing: Despite all the upsets and unpredictability that are the very essence of this tournament, some things are still certain. Top-seeded Michigan State will play flat in the first half, adjust at the break and win. Afterwards, when asked about the excitement of the Elite Eight, Mateen Cleaves will say he "doesn't get caught up in that." Money in the bank, right there. As far as actual games go, you'll see No. 3 Johnny be good - much better than No. 2 Maryland.

Players to Watch:

Parting Shots: Even though our brackets were a bit hard to read (fitting that Duke blotted out the rest of the field, huh?) we also received complaints that they were wrong, because ESPN's looked different. Even though we've made mistakes before (see Pg. (with corrections) if you don't believe me) we knocked down this open look ... Did you pick Weber State? Can you prove it? Didn't think so, but if you think you can, e-mail (start bold ital.)hoops.daily@umich.edu (end bold ital), we've got something for you. ... Did you laugh at my Surprise NCAA Tournament team when Tipoff came out back in November? The other basketball writers did. Who's laughing now? (HINT: me, because I almost never get those right.) Did you laugh at my pick last week for Texas as the Cinderella team? Who's laugh- ... oops, never mind.

Today's Schedule:

Predicted winners in bold

South Region Semifinals, at Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, Tenn.

No.1 Auburn vs. No. 4 Ohio State (bold AUB)

No. 2 Maryland vs. No. 3 St. John's (bold STJ)

West Region Semifinals, at America West Arena, Phoenix

No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 5 Iowa (bold CONN)

No. 6 Florida vs. No. 10 Gonzaga (bold FLA)

03-18-99