Conference bowl picture taking shape

Joe Paterno's coaching record at Penn State this century has been a little strange. He's been the Nittany Lions' coach for exactly half of the century, 50 years. He's spent 35 of those years as the head coach. He put together three undefeated teams in his first 10 years as head coach, but he didn't win a national title until his 17th, and that 1982 team had one loss.

He spent most of those years without a conference, which may have hurt the national title chances of some of those undefeated teams. In 1993, the Lions joined the Big Ten to make sure that didn't happen again, but a year later, he put a 12-0 record together and still found himself the bridesmaid instead of the bride.

Wouldn't it be fitting, then, in a college football century that could be defined by Paterno as much as anyone, to close it out with a Joe Pa national title?


Josh Kleinbaum

Apocalyse Now

Not if Minnesota, Michigan or Michigan State have anything to say about it.

With just three weeks left in the season, those are the obstacles Penn State must topple to reach the Sugar Bowl. Gripping a No. 2 BCS ranking with a sizable lead over No. 3 Virginia Tech, Penn State controls its own destiny. If the Lions do their business on the field, they'll be partying on Bourbon Street come the beginning of January.

But what about the rest of the conference? As the Big Ten season enters its last lap, the big three conference bowls - Rose, Citrus, Outback - are all up for grabs. A glance at the schedule reveals six key games that could decide who's playing on New Year's day and who'll be stuck remembering the Alamo.

Two of them are this weekend. Ohio State and Wisconsin can decide who's the better quarterback - Michigan State's Bill Burke, who looked like a Heisman candidate against Michigan and will play the Buckeyes this weekend, or Purdue's Drew Brees, who actually is a Heisman candidate but didn't look like it against Michigan. Brees and the Boilermakers host Wisconsin on Saturday.

In the final two weeks, Michigan plays Penn State and Ohio State, and the Spartans host the Lions.

This is what it all boils down to:

n If Penn State wins out, the Lions go to the Sugar Bowl. If they lose a game, they go to the Rose bowl. If they lose two games ... well, it's not going to happen.

n If Wisconsin's secondary can handle Drew Brees, the Badgers lock up a spot in the Rose or Citrus bowls. With lowly Iowa as the Badgers' last game, they'll clinch the one-loss conference season, and their Rose Bowl fate rides on Penn State's national title hopes. Even if the Badgers lose to Purdue, they'd have just two conference losses, and could slip into the Rose or Citrus bowls because ...

n The race for third place is a mess. After this weekend, either Michigan State or Ohio State will have a third conference loss - probably Ohio State. So will Michigan after it plays Penn State next weekend. That means the only team left with just two conference losses will be the Spartans-Buckeyes winner, and that team will have its hands full in the season's final week, when the Spartans play Penn State and the Buckeyes play Michigan. Throw Purdue in the mix, too - a victory over the Badgers and they'll end the season 5-3 in the conference.

After all is said and done, here are the predictions: Penn State wins out and plays in the Sugar Bowl. Wisconsin beats Purdue and plays in the Rose Bowl. Michigan State beats Ohio State, loses to Penn State and plays in the Citrus Bowl.

All of which sets up that fabled final-week rivalry game. Michigan versus Ohio State, with nothing less on the line than the all-important Outback Bowl.

But Joe Pa won't be watching. He'll be busy preparing to begin the next century against Florida State.

- Josh Kleinbaum can be reached vial e-mail at jkbaum@umich.edu

11-03-99

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