Russian military claims success

Chechnya endures continued bombing

Despite widespread early predictions of disaster, the Russians have held the upper hand since the fighting began in early September. Russian troops occupy large parts of the breakaway region and the main towns are under constant attack.

Short of heavy weapons, disunited and poorly organized, Chechen forces have found it difficult to strike back - or carry out little more than hit-and-run attacks.

"The (Russian) military is using its firepower superiority to the hilt, avoiding infantry engagements and pounding the enemy from a distance," said Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent military analyst.

The key to the Russian success has been new tactics to avoid the bloody infantry battles that inflicted big losses on federal forces during the 1994-96 Chechen war, analysts say. But, they warn, Russian forces could soon become bogged down indefinitely, meaning more and more military and civilian casualties.

This time around, Russia is fighting a long-distance war. Its forces sit around Grozny and other Chechen towns, using planes, artillery and rockets to wear down Chechen resistance. Lacking artillery or tanks, Chechen fighters have been unable to hit back.

Chechen commanders want the Russians to storm Grozny and other towns, believing their guerrilla fighters would have the upper hand in street fighting - as happened in the last war.

Aware of that, Russian commanders have made no move to attack. But that could lead to prolonged stalemate since the Chechens are not likely to leave Grozny and other towns unless they are driven out.

"Russian forces have not managed yet to make a major breakthrough," said Yevgeny Krutikov, a military analyst for the Izvestia newspaper.

At the same time, the Chechens face major problems of their own.

The Chechen government is in a bitter power struggle with powerful warlords and the small republic's economy is shattered after years of war and neglect. Chechen commanders admit privately their forces are poorly organized and equipped, largely because of internal disunity.

Civilians are bearing the brunt of the war despite Russian claims that only military targets are hit. Some 200,000 people have fled and large areas are being depopulated, depriving the Chechen forces of vital local support.

While the war may continue to go well for them, the Russian forces may not achieve a decisive victory, analysts say. Even if Russian troops occupy all of Chechnya, they are not likely to end resistance for years to come.

"At present, Russian troops have fulfilled the goals that were set for them in the first phase of the campaign by occupying large areas. The second phase will be concluded after Chechnya's complete occupation. The third phase will be fighting Chechen guerrillas," said Alexander Pikayev, an analyst at the Carnegie Foundation.

During the first Chechen war, Russian forces occupied the republic, but failed to crush the Chechen forces. Just when Moscow thought it had won the war, the Chechens recaptured Grozny, fighting the Russians to a standstill.

With Russian public opinion tired of the war and high casualties, Moscow accepted a deal in 1996 that gave the republic de facto independence. Russian forces went back to Chechnya in September after Chechen-based militants invaded Russian territory and were blamed for a series of apartment bombs in Russia that claimed some 300 lives.

Chechen commanders are betting they can outlast the Russians again.

But Russian public opinion has been strongly behind the war this time and the government has worked to ensure strong support. Public support may waiver if Russian casualties soar and the war drags on endlessly, analysts say.

Western nations, alarmed about the growing civilian casualties, have urged Moscow to seek a peaceful settlement. But the calls have been blunted by Western leaders saying they accept Russia's right to suppress terrorism.

The Russian government has shrugged off the concerns, saying Chechnya is an internal matter. The West has not raised the possibility of sanctions against Moscow, which is dependent on Western financial aid.

11-11-99