Four of the top 10 teams in the Bowl Championship Series rankings blew it this past Saturday. The entire bowl picture is now in the air going into the final week before the conference championships.
Tennessee's surprising loss to unranked Arkansas and Nebraska's dominance over then-No. 5 Kansas State have left only two top teams other than No. 11 Marshall undefeated.
Florida State controls its own destiny. A victory over Florida this Saturday and a win in the Sugar Bowl would guarantee the Seminoles a national title.
Michael Vick and surprising Virginia Tech positioned themselves at the No. 2 spot going into this week's game at Temple. But Florida, with only one loss, has title aspirations of its own. The Gators could ruin Florida State's plans when the two teams meet on Saturday in the annual battle between these two Sunshine State rivals.
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| AP PHOTO Chris Weinke hopes to lead his Seminoles into the Sugar Bowl by beating Florida. |
In this year's tussle in the Swamp, Florida State defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews must decide whether to attack the Florida quarterbacks or to sit back in the passive 3-8 defense that stifled the Gators last year, allowing them just 12 points.
Florida State may have the luxury of dropping linebackers into coverage if the defensive line, led by defensive tackle Corey Simon, can penetrate the Florida backfield without blitzing.
There is question whether Florida State corners Mario Edwards and Tay Cody can play man-to-man against receivers like Florida's Darrell Jackson (17.5 yards per catch, nine touchdowns). They will not have to if Andrews decides to mix zone coverages and confuse whichever inept quarterback Florida coach Steve Spurrier decides to throw out.
Offensively, Florida State will count on Weinke to continue his hot play of recent weeks. He has two very capable weapons in Ron Dugans and Peter Warrick. As he did last year off a tipped pass from backup Marcus Outzen in last season Florida-Florida State game, Warrick can create touchdowns out of broken plays.
At the same time, Florida has become anemic on offense. Built for a big-play passing game, the Gators have completed a very low percentage of their passes in recent weeks, and have not sustained offense with first downs.
Jesse Palmer's effort against lowly South Carolina last week (15-33, 161 yards) should concern the Florida faithful, as well as the measly 300-yard output against the winless Gamecocks. Spurrier has been content to smash running back Earnest Graham between the tackles, and he has been able to generate a solid ground game.
However, the Gators have lost the time-of-possession battle too often. An offense that can't score, and an offense that can't control the ball means that the Florida defense must play heroically to win against the Seminoles.
If the Florida defense can force a lot of three-and-outs and keep the Seminoles off the field, they have a chance. Florida needs to generate a large turnover and points-off-turnover advantage in the game, as well as make touchdowns out of Spurrier's trick plays. That said, Florida State could destroy the Gators' with an explosive first half - Florida's offense can't match the Seminoles in a shootout.
Florida State 37, Florida 21
Alabama (6-1 SEC West, 8-2 overall) at Auburn (2-5, 5-5)
Amid the raucous chants of "Warrrrr Eagle" and "Roll Tide," Auburn's Jordan-Hare Stadium will play host to this year's Iron Bowl, the site of the state of Alabama's premier sporting event. Played under the lights on national televison, this game's intensity will rival that of any game played this year.
Alabama running back Shaun Alexander leads the potent Tide offense. Look for Alabama coach Mike Dubose to call his number often. Alexander has shown the ability to singlehandedly win games, shown by his four-touchdown effort against Florida.
Quarterback Andrew Zow must supplement Alexander's running with some efficient passing, much as he did against the Gators. The Tide has shown a tremendous ability to control the ball. Their rugged style can wear down Auburn.
Auburn marches in having played its best game of the season. Coming in, quarterback Ben Leard and wide receiver Ronney Daniels had career days against a very good Georgia team. Auburn has both a poor defense and a poor running game, so the only chance the Tigers have against the Tide is if the two ignite.
Despite the home-field advantage, and a hot streak, Auburn will not be able to handle a complete Alabama team. The Tigers will throw often, and may net some impressive yardage on the Alabama defense, but the Tide will be able to answer Auburn's passing game with a balanced, possessive offense. This will be a dogfight, but Alexander and company will prevail.
Alabama 24, Auburn 17
California (3-4 Pac-10, 4-6 overall) at Stanford (6-1, 6-3)
The annual Big Game between Bay Area schools finally has meaning this year. Played in Palo Alto, Stanford fans may have the opportunity to possibly witness the Cardinal's first Rose Bowl season since 1972. Stanford's roller-coaster season finally has landed the team in a position to win the Pac-10 with a victory over the rival Golden Bears.
This game features a matchup between the Pac-10's best offense (Stanford) and the Pac-10's stoutest defense (California) - if any defense in the Pac-10 can be considered strong.
Look for the game-breaking passing tandem of Stanford quarterback Todd Husak and wide receiver Troy Walters. Walters must contend with cornerback Deltha O'Neal of California, who leads the NCAA in interceptions this season.
This matchup could be determined by the success Stanford has on offense. If California can slow the Cardinal's offense, they may be able to strike for some cheap touchdowns.
Despite their weak defense, a determined Stanford team should roll to its first Rose Bowl in 27 years.
Stanford 45, California 35
No. 13 Penn State (5-2 Big Ten, 9-2 overall) at No. 15 Michigan State (5-2, 8-2)
Starting the season 9-0, with two straight home games ahead, Penn State was already making travel arrangements for New Orleans, where it expected to play for the national title. But two games and two blown fourth-quarter leads later, the Nittany Lions are now tied for second in the Big Ten and need a victory to secure a Citrus Bowl berth.
Penn State cannot afford to beat themselves against Michigan State like they did against Michigan and Minnesota. The Spartans beat several quality teams this year, including Notre Dame, Michigan and Ohio State, on their way to their first eight-win season since 1987.
The Michigan State rushing defense, anchored by Robaire Smith and T.J. Turner, is ranked No. 2 in the country, surrendering just 69 yards per game. The defensive duo will aim their sights at stopping a Penn State ground game that fared poorly against Michigan.
The Spartans are led offensively by explosive wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who has consistently made big plays. Senior quarterback Bill Burke left last week's game with a bruised pectoral muscle, but will probably start in his final game at Spartan Stadium.
A victory over Penn State would give the Spartans sole possession of second place in the Big Ten and a chance to play in a New Year's Day bowl.
Expect Penn State coach Joe Paterno to empty his bag of trick plays after losing two consecutive games, and defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky to channel out his frustration and propose a highly aggressive game plan. They will try to shake up the Spartans by creating turnovers and making big plays on both sides of the ball, in order to quiet the Senior Day crowd in East Lansing.
Penn State 21, Michigan State 17
No. 17 Minnesota (4-3 Big Ten, 7-3 overall) at Iowa (0-7, 1-9)
The Golden Gophers have certainly been the surprise of the Big Ten this year. Winning seven games for the first time since 1985, and ruining Penn State's national championship hopes with one swift kick, they showed the country that Minnesota is no longer a pushover.
In fact, its passing defense and total defense are the best in the Big Ten, giving up just 155 yards in the air and 293 yards overall.
Led by the one-two combination of quarterback Billy Cockerham and running back Thomas Hamner, the Gophers are an explosive offense and should continue to succeed against Iowa - owner of the worst defense in the Big Ten.
Hamner is 11th in the nation in rushing, averaging 123 yards a game (1,279 for the season). He needs just 165 yards to set the school record. This would normally be a difficult feat, but considering he is facing the Hawkeyes, he should have no problem.
Iowa gave up 216 yards last weekend to the new career rushing leader, Ron Dayne, in an embarrassing 41-3 defeat to Wisconsin. Consistent dwellers of the Big Ten basement, the Hawkeyes are losers of seven straight. Make it eight.
Minnesota 35, Iowa 6
No. 19 Purdue (3-4 Big Ten, 6-4 overall) at Indiana (3-4, 4-6)
The Boilermakers have been an exciting team to watch. Heisman candidate Drew Brees leads the Big Ten in passing efficiency, yards, touchdowns and attempts in coach Joe Tiller's offense.
After starting the season 4-0, Purdue faltered in a horrendous stretch of schedule, dropping contests to Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. Purdue is already eligible for a bowl game, but beating the Hoosiers would definitely help their chances.
The Purdue defense has been susceptible to the big play this season, giving up 38 points to Michigan, 31 to Penn State and over 25 points to both Minnesota and Wisconsin. Teams exploited Purdue's weak secondary by mixing up the run and the pass, and Indiana has the personnel to do just that.
Led by the exciting Antwaan Randle El, one of the more versatile quarterbacks in the country, the Hoosiers have kept themselves in many games. Randle El has 2,463 total yards in offense and leads his team in both rushing and passing.
As good of a playmaker Randle El is, he is no match for the explosive Purdue offense, which is well-rested after a bye week. Expect to see Brees and the Big Ten's top receiver, Chris Daniels (108 catches for 1,117 yards), to hook up early and often in this matchup.
Purdue 34, Indiana 17
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| DANA LINNANE/Daily Drew Brees will try to solidify his team's bowl status against Indiana on Saturday. |
11-18-99
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