It's BCS or bust - 'M' likely headed to Orange

Last Wednesday, five Big Ten teams received bowl invitations: Michigan State (Citrus), Purdue (Outback), Penn State (Alamo), Minnesota (Sun) and Illinois (Micron PC). Throw in Wisconsin's Rose Bowl invite, and all of the Big Ten's slots are filled.

Which means one of two things: Either Michigan is guaranteed a Bowl Championship Series at-large berth, or the Wolverines will be playing in the Motor City Bowl. The second isn't going to happen.

Which leaves the Wolverines in either the Orange or Fiesta bowls. And you can put your money on Miami's Orange Bowl. You just need a Ph.D to understand why.

Josh Kleinbaum Apocalypse Now

Before Friday's games, Virginia Tech and Nebraska were battling for the right to play Florida State in the Sugar Bowl for the national title. Virginia Tech held a slim lead in the BCS standings, but if the Hokies struggled against Boston College and the Cornhuskers blew out Colorado and Texas in their last two games, the Huskers could slide past the Hokies in some of the computer rankings that the BCS uses, jumping Nebraska to No. 2 in the BCS despite a loss.

If Nebraska passed Virginia Tech in the BCS, the Hokies would likely wind up in the Orange Bowl, pushing Michigan to the Fiesta Bowl in Tempe, Ariz.

But the Hokies didn't struggle against Boston College. And Nebraska did struggle against Colorado. Which leaves the Sugar Bowl Hokie-dory on Jan. 4.

Keep in mind that the BCS is only used to determine the Sugar Bowl participants. For the other BCS bowls - the Rose, Orange and Fiesta - the decision of who plays where is entirely based on financial considerations (i.e. filling the stadium and getting high TV ratings).

For geographic reasons, the SEC champion - the winner of this Saturday's Florida-Alabama game - is the logical choice to play in the Orange Bowl. The same can be said for Tennessee and the Big XII champion - either Texas or Nebraska - in the Fiesta Bowl.

Although Michigan isn't an East Coast school, it has a good enough national reputation to draw in Miami. Plus, there are plenty of Michigan alums in the area.

If you followed that, MIT is looking for a new mathematics professor.

It all boils down to this: When the BCS announces its pairings in six days, expect to hear Michigan playing Florida in the Orange Bowl. And if not, you can always cancel the hotel reservation.

- Josh Kleinbaum can be reached via e-mail at jkbaum@umich.edu

11-29-99