Around the Nation

Around the Nation

U.S. says missile sales a 'growing threat'

The unexpectedly dire assessment by the National Intelligence Council also warns for the first time that rogue nations developing ballistic missiles will seek to build systems to jam, evade or overwhelm potential U.S. anti-missile defense systems. It adds that Russia and China "probably" will sell their own counter-measure technology to other countries.

The report thus provides strong ammunition to both sides in the contentious political debate over whether the United States should build national or regional anti-missile systems. Missile-defense supporters cite the threat from North Korea as justification, while critics predict the systems will never work and could spark a new arms race.

Although the number of nuclear-armed missiles capable of striking the United States has decreased since the Cold War, the report says the world has grown less secure because missile technology has spread to unpredictable regimes such as North Korea and Iran. Such states may threaten to use missiles as a means of diplomatic blackmail, rather than for warfare.

"It feels more dangerous because there are so many more factors,"a senior intelligence official said

during a briefing at CIA headquarters, where a 16-page unclassified version of the report was released

Thursday. He said the probability that a missile armed with a nuclear, chemical or biological weapon

will be used against U.S. forces or interests is "higher today than during most of the Cold War."

The report concludes that the United States will "most likely"face ballistic missile threats over the

next 15 years from Russia, China and North Korea, "probably"from Iran and "possibly"from

Iraq.

It said Russia, which now has about 1,000 strategic ballistic missiles and 4,500 nuclear warheads,

"will continue to be the most robust and lethal"threat. But it said Russia's nuclear force is expected

to decrease dramatically, far below limitations set by arms control treaties, due to severe budgetary

constraints.

China, which now has about 20 intercontinental ballistic missiles, is expected to have "tens of

missiles"capable of targeting the United States by 2015.

The intelligence official said there is no evidence, including China's first test last month of the

solid-fueled, mobile DF-31 intercontinental missile, that Beijing is seeking a first-strike capability.

Chinese policy calls for a nuclear force that could survive a nuclear strike and launch a counterattack,

thus serving as a deterrent.

The report said Iran could test a missile able to deliver a payload of several hundred kilograms to the

United States in the last half of the next decade using Russian technology and assistance, but most

analysts believe it could test a less powerful, less accurate missile in the next few years.

The Stalinist regime in North Korea, however, remains the greatest concern. Pakistan and Iran have

tested new missiles in the last year that were based on North Korean designs, assistance or

technology.

The report concedes that North Korea's launch of a three-stage rocket that flew over Japan in August

1998 was "completely unexpected"by U.S. intelligence agencies. The rocket, which failed to put a

satellite into orbit, could easily be modified to carry a warhead.

More immediately, U.S. negotiators attending talks this week in Berlin are trying to persuade North

Korea not to test a new intercontinental ballistic missile, called the Taepodong 2, that is deemed ready

for launch. Washington wants North Korea to freeze or phase out its ballistic missile development,

testing and sales.

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Overall, the report is more alarmist in tone that the last official intelligence assessment of the ballistic

missile threat to the United States, issued in March 1998.

Four months later, a bipartisan congressional panel led by former Defense Secretary Donald H.

Rumsfeld warned that North Korea and Iran could strike U.S. territory with "little or no warning''

and criticized the intelligence community for being too complacent.

The new report follows Rumsfeld's lead, for the first time presenting ominous scenarios of what

potential enemies could do over the next 15 years, as opposed to only offering what analysts deem

them most likely to do.

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The report also warns that the United States is highly vulnerable to attacks by short-range missiles, if

a terrorist or hostile nation launches one from an offshore ship or from an aircraft outside U.S.

airspace. It said the "likelihood is increasing"of a deadly terrorist attack involving chemical

weapons.

The annual report on the foreign missile developments and the ballistic missile threat to the United

States was mandated by Congress. Briefings on the classified report will begin Friday on Capitol

Hill.

LA TIMES-WASHINGTON POST-09-09-99 2011EDT

GOP adopts more modest tax cut

Faced with a certain veto of their $792 billion tax cut plan, GOP leaders indicated they have little interest in trying to negotiate a compromise package with President Clinton in which they would trade an increase in spending for Medicare and other domestic programs for a smaller tax cut.

Instead they said they will focus largely on passing routine spending bills and locking in future budget surpluses to protect Social Security and begin paying down the $5.6 trillion accumulated national debt.

This change in strategy reflects a calculation by Republicans that it would be politically risky to engage Clinton in complicated eleventh-hour negotiations, as they have in the past with often disastrous results. Instead, Republicans have concluded they will be better off getting out of town as soon as possible and preparing for next year's election.

It also reflects their lack of success in convincing the public to support a tax cut many rank as low on their list of priorities. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Americans want Congress to

use any budget surplus to increase spending on education and health care programs before they cut

taxes or reduce the national debt.

"We don't feel we need a tax cut to survive," said Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (Va.), chairman of the

National Republican Congressional Committee. "Our challenge to the president is, "If you don't use

the surplus for tax cuts, don't use it for more spending.' "

The White House and congressional Democrats insist there is still time for an agreement this year on a

smaller tax package in the range of $250 billion to $300 billion targeted to the middle class.

Clinton told reporters Thursday that "I'm willing to work" with the Republicans to provide a modest

tax cut this year that will not undermine efforts to buttress Social Security or reduce the debt. "There

is always some flexibility in this budget," he said.

But House Majority Leader Richard K. Armey, R-Tex., and other House leaders Thursday echoed

the assertion of Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., that a veto of the GOP tax bill would kill

taxes as an issue this year.

"We'd love to see (Clinton) sign the bill, but if he's not going to sign it . . . we're not prepared to let

the president give us sort of a half-baked tax bill in exchange for an increase in spending," Armey

said.

Yet even the minimalist approach will be difficult. Only two of the 13 annual spending bills have

cleared Congress and been signed by the president, with the largest and most contentious yet to be

completed.

Because Congress is operating under budget constraints imposed by the 1997 balanced budget deal,

there isn't enough money available to finance government programs and personnel to the satisfaction

of a majority of House and Senate members and Clinton without dipping into surpluses in the Social

Security program-which Republicans and Democrats alike have promised to keep off limits.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), among others, has warned that mounting spending

demands-including billions of dollars of supplemental spending that the administration will soon

request-would wipe out the $14 billion non-Social Security surplus projected for 2000 and eat into the

Social Security funds to the tune of $11 billion or more.

House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, R-Tex., Thursday insisted that Congress would find a way to

pass all the spending bills without dipping into Social Security, although it was far from clear where

the Republicans would find the additional funding or the necessary offsetting cuts in other programs.

Already, GOP leaders have had to employ a number of gimmicks to make some of the smaller

spending bills palatable to members of Congress. Now they have to find a way to pass the larger,

much tougher bills, including the labor-health-education and commerce-justice-state appropriations

bills.

LA TIMES-WASHINGTON POST-09-09-99 2047EDT

Drug could aid in cancer treatment

Although the drug has been used only in mice, researchers at the University of Illinois at Chicago are preparing to test it in baboons and hope to have it ready for human tests in about a year.

A report on the drug study in mice appears today in the journal Science.

Andrei Gudkov, lead author of the study, said that if the drug works in humans, it may be possible to give more vigorous radiation and chemotherapy treatments for cancer without an increase in the side effects that cause such misery for patients.

''Cancer treatment is usually such a pain that people feel bad not only physically but also emotionally and psychologically,'' said Gudkov, a molecular genetics researcher at the university. ''Making this treatment more bearable would be a tremendous advantage for these patients.''

''This is an interesting and novel finding that could be very important in cancer treatment,'' said Dr. Carlos Cardon-Cardo, director of molecular pathology at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York.

Cardon-Cardo said that if side effects of cancer treatment could be eliminated or controlled, ''it would allow us to give higher doses and more effective doses'' of radiation and anti-tumor chemicals.

09-10-99