Around the Nation

Around the Nation

Census reports increase in diversity

A report released yesterday furnishes fresh evidence of increasing ethnic diversity and its unpredictable impact on the nation's political and social landscape.

The trend is leading to a time when ''everybody's a minority,'' said Vanderbilt University historian Hugh Davis Graham.

Blacks, whose numbers grew almost 13 percent between 1990 and 1998, remain the nation's largest minority at 12.7 percent, or 34.4 million of the nation's population of about 270 million in 1998.

Latino/as made up 9 percent of the population in 1990, and that grew by 1998 to just over 11 percent of the total, 30.3 million, the annual update of the 1990 Census said.

The high number of Latino/as in large Electoral College states such as Texas, California, Florida and New York gives the group substantial political clout, but the growth of Hispanics showed up in less expected areas.

''Four states had their Hispanic populations double - Arkansas, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina,'' said Census statistician Larry Sink.

-Arkansas' Hispanic population increased by 150 percent to 49,000.

-Georgia's increased by 102 percent to 220,000.

-Nevada's increased by 124 percent to 78,000.

-North Carolina's increased by 110 percent to 161,000.

The Hispanic population, already one of the nation's largest minorities, will overtake the non-Hispanic black population by the end of 2004, said statistician Larry Sink.

''We've seen race relations as a black-white issue,'' said Roderick Harrison of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington think tank. ''Clearly, the size of the Hispanic population and the Asian population turns it into a multicultural issue.''

The Asian and Pacific Islander population grew in the 1990s from 3 percent of the overall population to almost 4 percent at 10.5 million.

-In Nevada the Asian-Pacific Islander population increased by 106 percent to 81,000.

-In Georgia, it increased by 95 percent to 150,000.

-In North Carolina, it increased by 87 percent to 100,000.

Dinah Choi, project director for the Asian Pacific Policy and Planning Council, said the rapid growth in numbers of Asians emphasizes a need for an accurate Census count in 2000.

The country's population of American Indians, Eskimos and Aleuts grew 14 percent to 2.4 million during the period.

States that already had significant populations of specific minorities showed less dramatic rate increases. For example, California increased its Hispanic population by 31 percent and its Asian population by 34 percent.

The explosion in Hispanic population lets Latinos sense their growing political potency.

'This is a very critical (presidential) race for us, and we will be the defining group,'' Aida Alvarez, chief of the Small Business Administration, said Tuesday at a rally for Vice President Al Gore's presidential campaign. ''The 21st century will be a Latino century, no doubt about it.''

George W. Bush, governor of Texas and the front-runner in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, also is targeting the Hispanic vote. A recent poll said he and Gore are splitting the Hispanic vote in Texas, but Bush trails in California.

Republican consultant David Hill of Houston warned a decade ago that the GOP needed to gain a bigger share of the Hispanic vote or lose gains made when they carved away some whites who traditionally voted Democratic before the Reagan era. These Democrats came to be known as ''Re Democrats.''

''The only way to change the equation is for Republicans to get a larger share of the Hispanic vote,'' Hill said. Hispanics voted for President Clinton in 1996 by more than 3-1, according to exit polls.

''The Democratic Party has always believed that one of our greatest strengths is the diversity of our party, and Hispanics and Asians have felt comfortable with Democrats,'' said Jenny Backus, a Democratic spokesperson.

Presidential candidates from both parties have made clear this year that they want the Hispanic vote, said Lisa Navarrete, spokesperson for the Latino advocacy group the National Council of La Raza.

''We have been experiencing something people have been predicting for a long time,'' she said. ''The growth has been amazing since the 1970s. What has really made a difference is the growth of the Latino communities where they normally have not been.''

Congress debates campaign finances

Despite money scandals from the 1996 campaign and signs that fund-raising for next year's elections will set new records, the early outlook is for a repeat of last year: The House passed a bipartisan bill reining in fundraising, only to see it killed by a Republican filibuster in the Senate.

But the issue of changing campaign finance law is a volatile one, and the bill's sponsors argue that voters are increasingly restive about the growth of special interest influence on elections.

Reform advocates have gained some ground in recent years, including achieving a majority in both houses, although falling short of the 60 votes needed to pass the measure in the Senate.

So there's enough doubt about the outcome in both chambers to keep both camps on edge.

The heart of the legislation, sponsored in the House by Reps. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), and Martin Meehan, (D-Mass.), is a ban on "soft money " that corporations, unions and wealthy individuals give to political parties without having to abide by contribution limits and other rules that usually apply to donations to federal candidates.

This unregulated money, ostensibly for party-building activities, are increasingly used by both parties to promote their candidates. It was the focus of inquiries into 1996 funding abuses. National party committees raised more than $55 million in "soft money " in the first six months of this year, compared with $30.6 million in the same period four years ago, according to Common Cause, which supports the legislation. Republicans have an advantage over Democrats in collecting such funds, and party leaders have warned that the bill's passage could erode that advantage.

The Shays-Meehan bill would also apply contribution limits and other regulations to campaign-season issue advertising that is clearly aimed at electing or defeating a specific candidate. Many such ads now escape regulation by attacking or praising candidates without directly urging people to vote for or against them.

The Senate bill, sponsored by Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Russell D. Feingold, D-Wis., is nearly identical, although it may be scaled back or otherwise changed to pick up more Republican votes.

In recent meetings with reporters, Shays and Meehan indicated cautious optimism about their prospects in the House, where they won last year, 252 to 179.

But they also signaled unease in light of behind-the-scenes opposition from GOP leaders and the appealing sound of some of the proposed alternatives and

amendments.

Ironically, they said, they don't have the advantage they had last year when then-speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., created a backlash by heavy-handed tactics

to avoid votes on the measure. This year, Shays noted, GOP leaders are "killing us with kindness " even as they oppose the bill.

Before voting on the bill, the House will consider three alternatives and 10 amendments. Among the most serious threats to the bill is a popular alternative

from Rep. William M. Thomas, R-Calif., to beef up the FEC. Shays and Meehan, who are fighting it on grounds that it would kill their proposal, say they

will incorporate its provisions in their bill when allowed to under the rules.

Many of the 10 amendments are similar to those considered and defeated last year. Seven are regarded by Shays and Meehan as "poison pills " because they

would gut their bill or shatter the coalition supporting it. Among these are proposals to increase contribution limits for federal candidates, restrict labor union

spending on politics and allow unrestricted Internet advertising. New proposals include one that appears aimed at forcing Hillary Rodham Clinton to pay the

full costs of government travel to New York while she prepares for a Senate campaign there.

Shays and Meehan see even more problems in the Senate, warning that a single vote on ending the anticipated GOP filibuster won't be enough. In agreeing to

schedule action by mid-October, Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., insisted on barring further votes this year and McCain went along, although Democrats

balked.

Senate backers must be prepared to force vote after vote, just as civil rights supporters did in the 1960s, Shays and Meehan argued. "If (opponents) know

it's just one vote, they'll endure the pain, " Shays said. "If they think there'll be 20 votes, I think (the bill) will pass the Senate. "

LA TIMES-WASHINGTON POST-09-14-99 1315EDT

Travel warnings are in effect for Y2K

In its first country-by-country assessment of the "Y2K bug," the State Department said many nations are likely to suffer disruptions in energy systems, communications, health care and shipping. No foreign country is free of Y2K risk, it added.

The reports range from cautiously optimistic for developed countries such as Japan and France to gloomy but hopeful for Russia and other states from the former Soviet Union.

In Russia, "Y2K disruptions are likely to occur in the key sectors of electrical power, heat, telecommunications, transportation and financial and emergency services,"the State Department said. Russia "appears to be somewhat prepared to deal with the Y2K problem."

That's better than Ukraine, which "appears to be unprepared,"the department said. "It appears that there may be risk of potential disruption in all key sectors, especially energy and electric services."

Ukraine is particularly worrisome because of its aging, Soviet-designed nuclear reactors, including a unit still functioning at Chernobyl.

The U.S. Energy Department has been working with utilities in Ukraine and other countries to try to head off Y2K reactor trouble.

Spokesmen for Ukrainian and Russian embassies in Washington said they wanted to study the State Department bulletins before commenting on them.

Yesterday's reports, posted on the State Department's Internet site, are part of general travel advisories that are routinely updated by the government.

But there was nothing routine about the Y2K advice, which U.S. diplomats worried would ruffle the feathers of countries deemed unprepared.

In a news briefing yesterday, top State Department officials managed to talk for more than 30 minutes about Y2K concerns without mentioning the name of a single nation at risk for problems. Instead, officials diplomatically referred people to their Internet site: http://travel.state.gov.

"We haven't done an analysis of who's higher, who's lower"for Y2K concerns, said Kevin Herbert, the head of overseas citizens services. "I think if you read these, you'll see each one describes a situation in that country. There's no rating."

The Y2K problem is almost everywhere. Because many computers use only two digits to express a year, they may interpret "00"as 1900 after the calendar rolls over. That could spur glitches, engineers believe, and might disrupt electrical systems, train networks, telephone operations and other utilities.

Previously the U.S. government has said that about half the world's countries bear a medium-to-high risk of Y2K-related failures in energy, communication and transportation.

The State Department's analysis is most optimistic for Western, developed nations and Japan.

France, for example, "has made progress on remediating Y2K problems"and has "a low risk of potential Y2K disruptions in key sectors."Japan "has moved rapidly on Y2K remediation"and also has a low risk for widespread problems.

But Japan's health-care sector is behind on compliance, the report said, and U.S. citizens in Japan should be alert to potential difficulties in other areas, too.

In some countries, Y2K risk will depend on where you are or whom you're dealing with.

For example, China's major coastal cities "are generally well prepared"but outside these areas, "there may be a risk of potential disruption ... in electrical power and infrastructure systems."

While Brazil "appears to be generally prepared,"local governments and small- and medium-sized businesses are lagging.

The department promises to update its warnings as the New Year draws closer.

09-15-99