Not a cupcake this time

Offense can't sputter against Badgers

Suddenly, people are fleeing the Wisconsin bandwagon like the Titanic.

Going into last weekend, all eyes were on this Saturday's showdown between No. 4 Michigan and No. 17 Wisconsin. Both teams would likely be undefeated, with the winner having a leg up in the race for the Big Ten title.

So much for that.

Usually, the Badgers wait until the Big Ten season to prove that they're overrated. But this year, reality struck early on - in the form of a crushing, 17-12 loss to Cincinnati. Yes, the same Bearcats that lost to Div-I-AA Troy State the week before

DANA LINNANE/Daily Michigan running back Anthony Thomas will need a big performance against Wisconsin, if the Wolverines hope to earn their Big Ten opener.

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So what does that mean for the Badgers? Well, it certainly hurts their national title hopes - if anyone outside of Madison had them to begin with. And if Wisconsin is going to use its easy conference schedule - Penn State is the heavyweight the Badgers skip this year - to stumble backwards into the Big Ten race, it has to start Saturday against Michigan.

For the Wolverines, this game could be trouble. Opening the Big Ten season on the road is always tough. And if Wisconsin uses last weekend as a wake-up call, then it could be more than a handful.

Michigan rushing offense vs. Wisconsin rushing defense:

If Michigan's offense were performing up to its potential, this would be a no-brainer. Anthony Thomas would run for days behind the mammoth offensive line, opening things up for the passing game. But so far this season, we have not seen the Michigan offense of old.

Michigan has been sputtering lately, and the running game has been one of the main problems. Thomas has been consistent, but has yet to break for any big plays in the past two weeks. The lack of a second back - Thomas has 79 of Michigan's 114 rushing attempts this season, and the rest have come during garbage time - will also be a concern as the grueling Big Ten season wears on.

Wisconsin's defensive line lost anchor Tom Burke, but return a solid core, led by defensive end John Favret. Favret lacks size (6-foot-4, 238) but may be able to beat Michigan's hefty linemen off the ball. Wisconsin is not overly impressive against the run but, unless Michigan finds its running game, this will be a stalemate.

Advantage: Even

Michigan passing offense vs. Wisconsin passing defense:

Thought Lloyd Carr would have decided on a quarterback by the start of the Big Ten season? Wrong. Carr will continue the routine he has used for the past three games, starting senior Tom Brady, playing sophomore Drew Henson in the second quarter, and then having the two shoot 'rock-paper-scissors' to decide who gets to play the rest of the game.

For the first time last week, Carr went with Henson in the second half, and he battled a tough Syracuse defense as Michigan held on for a win. The passing game, like the running game, has struggled mightily of late, and Michigan will need to improve to win on Saturday.

The Wisconsin secondary will undoubtedly be the toughest Michigan has faced so far this season. The Badgers have the eighth-best passing defense in the nation, led by sophomore cornerback Jamar Fletcher. Last season, Fletcher led the NCAA in interceptions as a redshirt freshman. Fletcher, a preseason nominee for the Jim Thorpe Award, should take away an entire side of the field. Senior safety Jason Doering is a punishing hitter.

Advantage: Wisconsin

Wisconsin rushing offense vs. Michigan rushing defense:

There's no other way to say it. Ron Dayne is a load, and could pose a lot of problems for a defense that has yet to face a dangerous power running attack. Wisconsin is averaging a whopping 291.7 yards per game on the ground - fifth in the nation. But these stats were compiled against the likes of Murray State, Ball State and the Bearcats.

Dayne has a habit of pulling a Houdini in big games, and the Michigan front seven is one of the most formidable units in the country. But it's unlikely that Dayne will be bottled up as soundly as he was last year, when a supposed ear infection limited him to16 times for 53 yards. Unless he comes down with an ingrown toenail.

Advantage: Wisconsin

Wisconsin passing offense vs. Michigan passing defense

Michigan's secondary was picked on at Syracuse last week, with the Orangemen engineering their only scoring drives behind long passes inside Michigan's five-yard-line. But the secondary also corralled two interceptions, giving them five on the year, and has rebounded nicely. With Tommy Hendricks leading the charge, calling the secondary the weak link of Michigan's defense is like calling Courtney Cox the ugly one on 'Friends.'

Wisconsin lost quarterback Mike Samuel last year, and has struggled to find a capable replacement. Scott Kavanagh has struggled, averaging just 117 yards per game in the air.

Advantage: Michigan.

Special teams:

Hayden who? Jeff Del Verne has been a rock of consistency this season, hitting 10-of-11 field goals and going perfect on point-after attempts. With Michigan's early-season tendency to stall in the red zone, Del Verne has been crucial. And long snapper Joe Sgroi didn't miss a beat filling in for the injured Jeremy Miller last week.

For the Badgers, Davis doubles as one of the country's most dangerous kick returners. He is third in the nation with 19.5 yards per punt return, and handles kickoffs just as well. With his game-breaking return ability, Davis is the deciding factor in this matchup.

Advantage: Wisconsin

This is a tough game to call. On paper, Wisconsin should have its way with Michigan. But with its inflated stats coming against high-school caliber opponents, the tale of the tape means nothing.

Michigan is already battle-tested this season, having survived two tough games, including one in an extremely hostile environment.

Wisconsin is as unprepared as any team with three games under its belt. Michigan's defensive practice squad is better than the units the Badgers have faced. So while Wisconsin appears to have the pre-game edge - and that's all we have to go on right now - they won't be able to keep up with the Wolverines.

Michigan 28, Wisconsin 17

09-24-99