House race tight; could give Dems majority

By Hanna LoPatin

Daily Staff Reporter

Every two years control of the U.S. House of Representatives comes up for grabs. In this tight election year, when almost every race on the ticket seems like it could go either way, both the Democrats and Republicans have their eye on the prize.

In the present Congress the Republicans hold a six-seat majority.

But the close political races could dictate a minuscule and ineffectual majority.

"No matter who wins control, it's going to be almost impossible to govern the House," Inside Michigan Politics Editor Bill Ballenger said.

As far as Ballenger is concerned, the winner is most likely going to be the Democratic Party.

"There are more open seats that tend to tilt Democratic than there are Republican," he said.

But there are several special circumstances that make this election year different than any other.

"The two parties are perhaps in more equal strength than in any time in the last quarter century," Ballenger said.

One of the tightest races in the country is taking place in the 8th District of Michigan, right next door to Ann Arbor.

The most recent EPIC/MRA poll showed Democrat Dianne Byrum favored over Republican Mike Rogers by one point with a five point margin of error. Roger's Press Secretary Sylvia Warner said political pundits have predicted "as the eighth district goes, so goes Congress."

But representatives from both parties said they were confident that their candidate would win the election.

Marit Babin, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that the Ohio Democrat James Traficant vocalizing his support for Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) for Speaker of the House over Dick Gephardt (D-Miss.) will additionally hurt the Democrats.

"There's no way the Democrats are going to be able to make up the difference," Babin said.

Babin said the Republican Party is confident in at least three seats that they can take away from the Democrats in races in Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York.

Losing Traficant's vote, combined with the three seats the Republicans are confident in gaining, adds up to 10 seats that the Democrats need to win to get the majority, Babin said.

"There are not 10 seats that they are going to win," she said.

But spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee John Del Cecato said the Democrats are not necessarily worried about the effect Traficant might have.

Traficant comes from a Democratic district that wants a Democratic speaker, Del Cecato said.

"We hope he joins us in our effort to make Dick Gephardt the speaker of the House," Del Cecato said.

"We are more confident today than at any other point in this cycle," he said. "The political winds are blowing our way."

Del Cecato said he believes people are tired of the right-wing majority.

"That's why they're no longer talking about raising (their number of seats), they're talking about protecting their razor-thin majority," he said.

Ballenger said Congressman Bernie Sanders, an independent socialist from Vermont, could sway the balance, though as he will vote with the Democrats on the issue.

If the House ends up split 217 and 217, "Bernie Sanders could be the tie-breaker," Ballenger said.

Congresswoman Lynn Rivers (D-Ann Arbor) is running for her fourth term in Congress and said that if the Democrats win they would give more options to Republicans than have been given to the Democrats over the past three terms.

"You can't get rid of parties," Rivers said. "But I think it could be less partisan ... if we take control we will involve the minority."