Election likely to have sweeping impact

From the White House to City Hall, options abound at polls

By Yael Kohen

Daily Staff Reporter

So much is at stake when voters head to the polls Tuesday that one analyst even described it as "a once-in-a-lifetime election."

After the polls close and the votes are tallied, all levels of government could have an entirely new face.

Republicans are hoping to win the presidency while maintaining control of Congress, and Democrats hope to regain a majority in Congress while holding on to the White House.

Although Supreme Court justices are not elected, the next president may nominate anywhere from two to four new justices.

And countless third-party candidates are campaigning not just for the presidency but for Congress, state legislatures and city councils as well.

"Think of the possibilities," Inside Michigan Politics editor Bill Ballenger said. "Any one of a number of things can happen."

After gaining a stronger majority in 1998's off-year election, Congress could go either way this time around.

"The Republicans are going to suffer a net loss in seats. The question is, can they hold those losses to only four or five seats, because if they lost any more than that they will lose control of the House," Ballenger said.

Ballenger said there is also the possibility the Democrats could regain a majority in both houses of Congress.

"I think the Republicans have a good chance to lose the Senate," Ballenger said.

There is also the prospect of a 50-50 tie in the Senate, Ballenger said, which means the vice president may have to break ties.

Presidential politics are just as ambiguous nationally as well as statewide.

"That's the tradition of Michigan politics. We have such close elections because we have a lot of independent voters," Michigan Democratic Party spokesman Dennis Denno said.

In the past month, both presidential candidates have come to Michigan at least once a week. And rarely has a presidential rally in the state not had Democratic Senate hopeful Debbie Stabenow campaigning behind the vice president or GOP Sen. Spence Abraham alongside the Texas governor.

Democratic candidates including Stabenow, Reps. Sander Levin of Royal Oak and David Bonior of Mt. Clemens also have been on the trail with Gore.

Although Democrats have been campaigning together, Denno said "they're running their own campaigns, and they're very independent people."

Polls have indicated that Stabenow's support often fluctuates similarly to Gore's, but Denno said each candidate's success is "not rising or falling with the success if the any of the presidential candidates."

Bush has been rallying in Michigan with Gov. John Engler and Secretary of State Candice Miller to promote himself and other Republican candidates, including 8th District congressional candidate Mike Rogers of Brighton and Rep. Joe Knollenberg of Bloomfield Hills.

"This is a full-fledged ticket with the top of the ticket leading the way," Michigan Republican Party spokesman Sage Eastman said.

And the races are close. Polls released in the last week have put Gore and Bush anywhere from being tied to the Texas governor being up by three or four points.

In an EPIC/MRA poll released last week, Stabenow and Abraham were tied at 41 percent. An Reuter/MSNBC/Zogby poll from earlier this week gave Stabenow her first lead of the campaign, after Abraham had held a double-digit lead for months.

"Michigan is a close state. Really, the only poll that really matters is Election Day," said John Truscott, Engler's spokesman.

The election is so tight this year that some analysts have not been able to ignore the effects of Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, who could contribute to a Bush win this year by taking away liberal votes from Gore.

Even though the Green Party recognizes that Nader has no chance of winning the White House, party members are hoping to get a few officials in office with the help of Nader's popularity.

"My principle concern is ... to build a long-range progressive political movement in America," Nader said during a rally at the University of Michigan's Dearborn campus Tuesday.

In Michigan, the Green Party has candidates running for the U.S. Senate, the House of Representatives and the University Board of Regents.

Some Green Party members have said they believe Tom Ness, a candidate for Levin's 12th District seat, has a chance to win.

At 2 percent of the popular vote, Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan does not pose as much of a threat to Bush as Nader does to Gore, partly because Buchanan has had trouble getting his name on the ballot in some of the key states. Buchanan is not listed on the ballot in Michigan.

Seats in the Michigan House of Representatives also are up for re-election, and the Democrats are hoping to win back the majority they lost in 1998.

State senators are not up for re-election until 2002.

AP PHOTO

President Clinton speaks yesterday on the 200th anniversary of the White House. On Tuesday, voters will head to the polls and pick the next resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.