Close races to determine size of Senate majority

By Jeremy W. Peters

Daily Staff Reporter

The plot of Michigan's highly competitive Senate race between Spence Abraham and Debbie Stabenow is being played out in several other states, suggesting that when the new Senate convenes in January it could be operating on the thinnest majority in recent history.

Republicans currently control the Senate with a 54-46 majority over the Democrats. This means Democrats need only gain five seats to reclaim the majority they lost in 1994.

But even Democrats acknowledge this will not be a simple feat.

"We need to flip five seats, and that could be a lot to do in a single year, but it's been done before," said David DiMartino, deputy communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "A bunch of close races will decide who has the majority. It's an outside chance. We're optimistic but realistic."

Terry Holt, the Republican National Committee's Victory 2000 communications director, said he thinks the Democrats have an uphill battle ahead of them.

"Obviously this is going to be a very close election for a lot of people ... but we are going into the weekend before the election very energized. It's very unlikely, at this stage, the Democrats will take the Senate," Holt said.

Depending on what defines a "competitive race," seven GOP senators are considered at risk of losing their seats: Abraham, Conrad Burns of Montana, Rhode Island's Lincoln Chafee, Washington's Slade Gordon, Rod Grams of Minnesota, Delaware's William Roth and John Ashcroft of Missouri.

The circumstances surrounding Ashcroft's vulnerability are particularly unusual.

Ashcroft was being challenged by Democratic Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan, who was killed in a plane crash last month. Because Carnahan's name cannot be removed from the ballot, he could still win the election.

In this case the state's new governor would appoint someone to fill the seat. Carnahan's wife, Jean, has announced she would be willing to fill her late husband's seat and the governor has indicated he would appoint her.

The appointment of a deceased politician's wife to his post is not an uncommon move, University political science Prof. Michael Traugott said. "What's unusual is that the candidate died before the election," he said.

Adding an even more bizarre twist to the Missouri race, recent polling has shown the deceased Carnahan with a slight lead over Ashcroft.

"We're glad she decided to accept the appointment should Governor Carnahan win. We feel she'd be the best person to accept the job," DiMartino said.

Arguably, the closest watched Senate race in the country is the New York showdown between first lady Hillary Clinton and Republican Rep. Rick Lazio.

This race, much like the one in Michigan, is anything but amicable and is characterized by massive amounts of money being spent.

According to the Federal Election Commission's latest figures, Clinton and Lazio have spent a combined $59 million.

"This is a big money year all around ... and this is a high profile race in particular," Traugott said. "Both candidates are raising massive amounts of money and spending massive amounts. New York is an expensive place to run."

Democrats say they believe the race is tilted in Clinton's favor.

"We think the first lady's lead is a confident one. We feel her agenda will register with New York voters more than Rick Lazio's campaign of personal attacks," DiMartino said.

Overall, Republicans contends they have the upper hand in not only the Senate races but in all national races this year.

"Republicans are enthusiastic all around the country," Holt said. "We're seeing party loyalty and intensity we haven't seen since the days of Ronald Reagan and this bodes well for candidates up and down the ticket."

Abraham, Conrad Burns of Montana, Rhode Island's Lincoln Chafee, Washington's Slade Gordon, Rod Grams of Minnesota, Delaware's William Roth and John Ashcroft of Missouri.

The circumstances surrounding Ashcroft's vulnerability are particularly unusual.

Ashcroft was being challenged by Democratic Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan, who was killed in a plane crash last month. Because Carnahan's name cannot be removed from the ballot, he could still win the election.

In this case the state's new governor would appoint someone to fill the seat. Carnahan's wife, Jean, has announced she would be willing to fill her late husband's seat and the governor has indicated he would appoint her.

The appointment of a deceased politician's wife to his post is not an uncommon move, University political science Prof. Michael Traugott said. "What's unusual is that the candidate died before the election," he said.

Adding an even more bizarre twist to the Missouri race, recent polling has shown the deceased Carnahan with a slight lead over Ashcroft.

"We're glad she decided to accept the appointment should Governor Carnahan win. We feel she'd be the best person to accept the job," DiMartino said.

The closest watched Senate race in the country is the New York showdown between first lady Hillary Clinton and Republican Rep. Rick Lazio.

This race, much like the one in Michigan, is anything but amicable and is characterized by massive amounts of advertising spending.

According to the Federal Election Commission's latest figures, Clinton and Lazio have spent a combined $59 million.

"This is a big money year all around ... and this is a high profile race in particular," Traugott said. "Both candidates are raising massive amounts of money and spending massive amounts. New York is an expensive place to run."

Democrats say they believe the race is tilted in Clinton's favor.

"We think the first lady's lead is a confident one. We feel her agenda will register with New York voters more than Rick Lazio's campaign of personal attacks," DiMartino said.

Overall, Republicans contend they have the upper hand in not only the Senate races but in all national races this year.

"Republicans are enthusiastic all around the country," Holt said. "We're seeing party loyalty and intensity we haven't seen since the days of Ronald Reagan and this bodes well for candidates up and down the ticket."