Evanston harbors bad memories for Blue

By David Den Herder

Daily Sports Editor

There is an old saying that claims the highest highs aren't nearly as extreme as the lowest lows.

For Michigan, there have been cool nights in Pasadena - and chilling afternoons in Evanston. And depending on who you talk to, Ryan Field is the embodiment of a pessimistic one-liner haunting the Michigan program.

It was, of course, Brian Gowins who booted No. 5 Michigan out of the national title picture in 1996 - on the shore of Lake Michigan, twice clutch. But by that time, it was no anomaly. Northwestern had done the same thing in Ann Arbor a year before - another fourth-quarter comeback for Michigan's first blemish.

Some have gone so far as to say that the word "upset" is obsolete in the Big Ten today. That is probably false. But to think No. 12 Michigan (4-1 Big Ten, 6-2 overall) has things all taken care of this weekend could be presumptuous at best.

Michigan rushing vs. Northwestern rushing defense: The Northwestern rushing defense has been somewhat fickle - allowing the most yards recently to, of all teams, Purdue.

Strong performances at the defensive ends held Indiana back, but of more concern to Michigan is the Wildcats' showing against the Spartans, whose rushing game follows a style more akin to Michigan's.

In that game, Northwestern allowed only 134 yards on the ground. Tomorrow might not be the Anthony Thomas show, but Lloyd Carr will certainly give it a try. And who could blame him?

Advantage: Michigan

Michigan passing vs. Northwestern passing defense: It's hard to find a team in the Big Ten that can edge Michigan in this category. Which is not to say Michigan is all about the pass. Ron Bellamy will be a question mark - he still had a cast on his hand Monday - but Marquise Walker and David Terrell are the best flank tandem in the Big Ten. Expect to see Michigan's classic swing and its favorite new short slant in third-and-medium situations. What ever happened to the counter boot to the tight end? It may have gone the way of Sean Thompson this season - but if it comes down to a shootout, don't be surprised to see the return of the tight end pass.

Advantage: Michigan

Northwestern rushing vs. Michigan rushing defense: "Everyone thinks Purdue wants to throw the ball because of Drew Brees," said Michigan defensive end Dan Rumishek. "But they want to run."

And that might be the biggest misconception about the spread. Northwestern wants to run, also. Enter Damien Anderson. He has 16 rushing touchdowns on the year and really hasn't been shut down - except by Purdue. Look out for Zak Kustok on the scramble, too - usually from the shotgun.

Michigan has handled Randle El and T.J. Duckett - most notably the third-quarter goal-line stand two weeks ago. Credit Michigan for back-to-back shutouts. But can the Wolverines deal with a quarterback and tailback threat in the same game? Not if West Lafayette is any indication.

Advantage: Northwestern.

Northwestern passing vs. Michigan passing defense: So it comes down to this, really. The unknown variable . The X-factor. The elastic clause.

No, Michigan has not allowed a single point in two games. But is the Michigan defensive secondary up to the Northwestern challenge? Despite the recent upsurge in interceptions, corner coverage is still questionable. The Wildcats have a diverse attack that most often is directed toward wideout Teddy Johnson - but the burden is split between Sam Simmons and Kunle Patrick (who's tip to Simmons won them the Minnesota game), as well as Anderson in the flat. The receivers win the matchup, but the recent breakout of Michigan's linebackers could make the difference. Still, the Wolverines have not effectively managed the spread this season.

Advantage: Northwestern

Special teams: It seems that Michigan's worries on this front are subsiding. Slightly. Del Verne is money inside 40 yards, and Epstein was nearly good from 52 against State.

Punts haven't been a problem, but remember Bellamy's injury. Northwestern's Tim Long is fine inside 30, but is about 70 percent outside that.

Simmons and Johnson handle returns for the Wildcats, neither have broken free.

Advantage: Even

Intangibles: With its victory over Minnesota last week, Northwestern has maintained its Big Ten darkhorse status.

But if one word could define Michigan coming off this bye week, it is refocused.

The Wolverines have no excuses to be anything less than what they could have been in September - and for the rest of this season, Michigan will have fans wondering - what if?

Advantage: Michigan

Final score:

Michigan 45, Northwestern 24