Midwest key to campaigns

By Yael Kohen

Daily Staff Reporter

The Midwest has become the most coveted region in the country for presidential hopefuls, as Al Gore and George W. Bush battle for the one area that hasn't been locked up by either candidate.

Although the big four states - California, New York, Texas and Florida - are generally considered the most important because of their electoral strength, it is the undecided and independent voters of the Midwest who many analysts are saying will determine who moves into the White House next year.

"They tend to go with the winner," said University political science Prof. Chris Achen.

And the candidates know it.

"The people of Michigan are going to have an extra strong voice in this election because it's tight, because it's a swing state," said Chad Clanton, Michigan communications director for the Democratic National Committee.

Last month, President Clinton passed through Michigan, stopping in Monroe to symbolically pass the torch to Vice President Gore on the way to the Democratic National Convention.

Texas Gov. Bush spent Labor Day at the Michigan Peach Festival in Romeo.

After the national conventions ended, the candidates have spent significant time campaigning in the Midwest and are expected to visit the region many more times before the Nov. 7 election.

Voters in swing states like Michigan can also anticipate increased advertising in the next two months.

"We're being hammered a lot more than most states with the ads," Achen said."

Experts predict Gore will win California and New York. And although Gore is going after Florida, Achen said it is likely the state will go to Bush because of his brother Jeb, the state's governor. Bush is expected to win his home state as well.

Among the smaller states, Bush seems to be the favorite in the South and the Rocky Mountain region. Gore is favored in the Northeast and the Pacific West region.

The Midwest is the last undecided frontier to be conquered for the 2000 presidential race.

The region is considered to have a "fairly balanced" number of Republicans and Democrats and have "a history of going either way in the election," said political science assistant Prof. Ted Brader, a faculty associate at the Center for Political Studies.

After California, New York, Texas and Florida, the most electorally powerful states are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Illinois, along with the geographically smaller states of New Jersey and Missouri.

So far, polls in Midwestern states are too close for analysts to call, but Achen said many have speculated that Bush will take Missouri and Ohio and the Gore will win Illinois and New Jersey.

This leaves Michigan and Pennsylvania still up for grabs.

Both are considered to be representative of the nation as a whole, especially in their suburban, urban, ethnic and industrial make-up.