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Coup to overthrow Gbagbo quashed

NAIROBI, Kenya - A failed coup in Ivory Coast that followed more than a year of turmoil further diminished hopes yesterday that the country could regain its reputation as a bastion of peace and stability in West Africa.

Mutinous soldiers seized state broadcast facilities early yesterday and called on supporters to join their attempt to grab power from an administration that has been in office fewer than three months.

By noon yesterday, Ivorian government officials reported that loyalist forces had quashed the coup attempt.

The aborted coup was the latest episode of violent revolt in a country fast becoming accustomed to political and ethnic chaos.

Analysts said the key to re-establishing long-term stability is the willingness of President Laurent Gbagbo's government to make good on its promise to promote national unity. For now, however, this once-tranquil cocoa producer will find it difficult to relinquish its spot in Africa's wide and disreputable league of volatile nations.

"The political scene is so fractured, unthinkable things can happen," said I. William Zartman, Washington-based director of African studies and conflict management programs at Johns Hopkins University.

"It will be difficult to put the genie back into the bottle."

Heavy gunfire erupted at the radio station in the central plateau district of Ivory Coast's commercial capital, Abidjan, just before midnight Sunday, witnesses said. State television headquarters in the district of Cocody were attacked at the same time, and both were captured by the rebels.

Two paramilitary gendarmes were reported killed on the loyalist side, but casualty figures for the rebels were unclear. Defense Ministry officials said about 15 renegade soldiers had been captured.

Witnesses, who confirmed that fierce fighting had taken place during the recapture of the television station, said the situation had stabilized by midafternoon.

The government has not said who might be behind the putsch in this former French colony, but Defense Ministry officials claimed that they had been aware of the plot and decided to let it proceed in order to catch the perpetrators.

OPEC threatens production decrease

LONDON - Energy analysts warned yesterday of stiffer oil prices to come if OPEC members curtail their crude output, as expected, by 1.5 million barrels - or 5 percent - a day.

Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheik Saudi Al Sabah, reiterating comments made over the weekend, said there is "a near consensus" among OPEC's 11 members to cut production by that amount when representatives meet next week in Vienna, Austria.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is concerned that demand for oil, which typically slackens during the second quarter of the year, might weaken further if the U.S. economy continues to sputter.

Plans for a production cutback didn't surprise oil markets. A sell-off in heating oil futures Monday dragged prices of crude oil and products lower on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Saudi Arabia, the biggest OPEC producer, had already expressed support for curtailing the group's output, and analysts said prices already reflected the effects of a possible cutback.

February heating oil fell 3.55 cents to close at 82.58 cents a gallon on forecasts of above-normal temperatures in the Northeast, while February light, sweet crude dropped 63 cents to $27.32 per barrel.

Still, prices are likely to climb somewhat higher if OPEC oil ministers agree formally to trim production. This anticipated rise in prices could intensify if Iraq continues to withhold much of its oil from world markets.

"It's not good news for the U.S. economy," said Leo Drollas, chief economist at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London.

Analysts agreed that Iraq could exacerbate the effects of a cutback in OPEC production. Iraq last month halted much of its 2.3 million barrels of daily crude exports in a dispute over pricing with the United Nations, which regulates all Iraqi oil shipments.

However, some analysts shrugged off the threat of steeper prices. They noted that late winter is a time of weak demand for both heating oil and gasoline, and they argued that Saudi Arabia has pledged previously to make up for any shortfalls in Iraqi oil production.

Gas prices in the United States over the past three weeks have averaged $1.49 a gallon, the Camarillo, Calif.,-based Lundberg Survey said Sunday. Prices have dropped 7 percent since Oct. 20, when the national average was $1.61.

OPEC countries produced 29.3 million barrels a day in November, almost 40 percent of the world's oil, according to the International Energy Agency.

In London, February contracts of North Sea Brent crude fell 75 cents a barrel to $24.43 on the International Petroleum Exchange.

Few analysts are predicting a return to last year's price levels, when crude peaked at more than $35 a barrel.

"I think the market's set for a ramble through the 20s. It might be high 20s, it might be low 20s," said Peter Gignoux, head of the petroleum desk at Salomon Smith Barney in London.

Sheik Saud Al Sabah, Kuwait's oil minister, told reporters in his country that a production cut of less than 1.5 million daily barrels would not be "in the interest" of OPEC. He said studies indicated a global oversupply of that amount, and he left open the possibility that OPEC members would approve a bigger cut when they meet Jan. 17 in Vienna.

Under pressure from the United States and other importers, OPEC boosted its output four times last year, for a total increase of 3.7 million barrels, in an effort to rein in prices from more than $30 a barrel. But a mild European winter and a replenishment of crude inventories have contributed to a recent slide in prices.

U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson urged OPEC not to scale back supplies.

"The U.S. would like to see production at constant levels until stocks have recovered, but we know that OPEC is going to contemplate some kind of cut," Richardson said in Vienna, after meeting Sunday with OPEC Secretary General Ali Rodriguez.

Headline: OPEC's talk of cutting oil output kindles price fears

Category: I

Creation Date: 1/8/2001 21:38:56 Submit Date: 1/8/2001 21:40:36

By Line: By BRUCE STANLEY Title: AP Business Writer

Object Name: WORLD OIL

ID: B1103

Source: The Associated Press Credit: (AP)

File Type: text/xml